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According to the article, the data the city is using is from 2005. It is likely access has increased in the past 14 years.


The article doesn’t link to the study and I can’t find it. “As many as” could mean anywhere from 1 to 50%. Smells like deception, but I could be wrong.


There's a PDF (https://prosperitynow.org/sites/default/files/resources/Bank...) that says that an analysis with those figures was done by Matt Fellowes at the Brookings Institute, which is interesting because it doesn't mention any polling or details, so who knows how those numbers were generated.


Thanks! Their numbers seem to be far off from the FDIC studies, despite them claiming they corroborate national averages.

Looking at the FDIC study from 2009, ~20% of Black/Hispanic households in California were unbanked, and when looking at citizens the number is ~7%.


This is false information that is commonly repeated. The ships produce more of a particular pollutant, sulfur dioxide (SO2), not CO2. Personal vehicles produce barely any SO2 (gasoline contains no sulfur, diesel contains a small amount) so it isn't surprising a few container ships, which burn sulfur-heavy bunker fuel, produce more.


I always want to think of sulfur in HFO are contributing to the total heating value because the stuff used to be 3% sulfur. Realistically it's probably 1%. Sulfur only has about 1/3 the energy content as HFO.

But they are phasing out high sulfur HFO in 2020 I think ships are restricted to 0.5% sulfur.


Using the numbers in this article[1], 1% of the taxpayers make only about 24% of the total income in CA, not 80%.

[1] http://www.sacbee.com/site-services/databases/article9349178...


A better question would be what percent of the wealth do they own? That would be much, much higher. If your investment portfolio doubles, are you richer? Of course. But it doesn't count as income. You're just making money off the backs of the poor whose wages are being depressed in favor of giving more money to capital.


Disposable income would be a better metric in this case. They may earn only 24% of the income, but how much of that is excess? ie. beyond providing their needs.

For the other 76%, all of that income may be spent on just food/rent/other essentials. Whereas the 1% have excess that they can save, or spend on luxuries. That's why tiered tax regimes exist.

NB. The definition of "needs" is obviously very debatable. The top 1% in California is defined as ~$90k, but given a median rent of >$4000/mth in SF, that skews the needs/excess taxable money argument considerably.


>During snow emergencies, cities should work with parking garages to make overnight parking for cars, free. It'll solve a lot of problems.

DC did in this case. The city warned about the emergency routes ahead of time, offered free parking at metro stations, and worked with private garages to offer $1/day parking.


The noise could be filtered out with enough samples, so this mitigation only increases the number of attempts required and does not prevent the attack.


They have publicly posted financial reports: https://www.torproject.org/about/financials.html.en


The author is claiming 5% is an historical average, which is plausible because in past decades, both interest rates and inflation were much higher.


This analysis is only looking at the price of the S&P 500, not the total return. An investor that sits out half of the year will miss out on about half of the dividends paid, which are always positive.

EDIT: Here is a graph highlighting how important including dividends is: https://i.imgur.com/YZSq6K3.png

Another consideration is taxes. The short-term gains produced by selling after 6 months are taxed at normal income rates (or slightly higher), as is the interest from the "risk free" interest-paying investment held the other 6 months. Long-term capital gains and dividends are taxed at favorable rates.


Thank You!

Its ridiculous how many of the timing/tactical strategies ignore these factors because of the complexity, even though they introduce massive drag vs buy & hold.

With the amount of data available, we should be able to do these sorts of backtests fairly accurately. At some point I hope I can compile a bunch of open prices/distribution data sets for people to use. You can easily get, for instance, daily close and distributions for VFINX (Vanguard's S&P 500 fund) back to 1980, but its not neatly compiled anywhere. Trickier is classifying distributions (dividend/LCG/SCG), but again all the required data exists (Sadly it means manually trawling through Edgar)


In case you're unaware, or someone reading this is, have a trawl through the MSCI [1] and FT websites [2] for detailed pricing data.

[1] http://www.msci.com/ [2] http://www.ftse.com/

If you're interested in getting hold of historic tick data you could go to a data provider (for a price) or perhaps more convenient would be to see if you could get access to a Bloomberg terminal.

Academics that research this area, especially questions of policy and market efficiency of both market pricing and funds, can be extremely open about their work, and are often keen to share.


Aren't dividends figured in to the historical prices anyway, though? Via adjusted closing prices?


There are several versions of the S&P 500. The version used here is the price index, which doesn't include dividends. The total return index, ^SPXTR[1], does account for dividends.

https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ESPXTR/level


In theory, but look at the dataset (https://github.com/AgoraOpus/Sell-in-May/blob/master/resourc...) and the adjusted close is the same.


The taxes issue could be solved in a fund that implements the strategy.

There is another advantage: during 6 months of the year you have 0 risk.


0 equity risk. You're still running currency risk with whatever currency you're holding in.


But that difference is diminished when you also take into account that you would be earning interest on your capital in the period you were out of the markets (e.g. through a savings account or short-term bonds).


They are already factoring that in, using a 5% risk-free rate.


Ben Horowitz begins all of his blog posts with rap lyrics: http://www.bhorowitz.com/


The contributions to a Roth IRA (but not the investment returns) can be withdrawn with no tax penalty, so there isn't much reason not to max it out if possible.

Employees should always contribute to a their 401k at least up to the company match, as it is essentially free money.


If you're getting paid at SV salary levels, it's entirely possible you're making too much to be allowed to contribute to a Roth IRA.

Some IRA companies will let you do put it into a traditional IRA then do a Roth conversion, but then again some will make you mail them a notarized form every time you want to do that.


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