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LotR is cool.

Palantir, Anduril industries and Mithril capital companies are not.


Colin from Earendil here. Will be up to us to prove whether we can become a Company Tolkien would be proud of.

I think author meant that you can't use claude code subscription with non claude code harness/clients (whatever you wanna call it).

From what I gathered, Lefos is some LLM tool with email interface, with maybe potentially giving Claw-like capabilities to read your inbox.

Earendil seems like some startup focused on open-source founded by a bunch of famous open-source devs. Though I am not sure if they're VC funded, but various mentions of "buying out" make me think that they are.



> Ok so bad intel or a similar mistake?

Forget "rules based order" or any sympathy from US Military/Pentagon/DoD.

When "arabs" bomb "the West" - it's "terrorism". When "the West" bomb "arabs" - it's a "mistake".

Same forces that did laser precision strikes against Maduro or countless military heads of Iran are attacking civilian infrastructure with double tap precision.

I am amazed how since WW2 there wasn't a military coup in USA as many wars from them were against any logic. I guess it just proves year after year, generation after generation that US military from top-to-bottom thinks that they are the only "good guys" and have been brainwashed just as their counterparts (be it Iraqis, Iranians, Chinese or anyone).


> Iran has been one week/one month/one year away from acquiring nuclear capabilities since 2014

Not disagreeing, but Bibi is saying this since 1980s. Now he found US leader stupid enough to believe these tales.


It is not jist Bibi, but also the IAEA and other international organizations. And at least the last 5 US administrations. I suppose they could also all be in Israel's pocket though.

Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile is really not up for debate. Iran is happy to tell everyone that they have it. With the proper equipment, 60% can go to 90% in a single month. So the question is how advanced is the Iranian infrastructure for the final enrichment step, and (less commonly talked about) how ready they are to actually make a fission bomb out of that material. The latter task is not considered to be very hard, North Korea did it after all, so the main focus has been on the former. There does seem to be some decent information that the centrifuge array has been under active development at various points, and has been consitently, actively targetted by Mossad/CIA for at least the past 20 years or so. For example, Stuxnet was a joint CIA/Mossad operation that begain in 2005 and continued through both GWBush and Obama.

Unfortunately, even with some nice bribes from Obama, Iran was always a little cagey with the IAEA inspectors, and officially kicked them out in 2021. So after that, the only sources for the state of Irans nuclear infrastructure information effectively became Iran itself and Mossad.


I saw it (I am not OC), though I think by pure accident.

There's seemingly appearing trend of ultra low contrast foreground to background (e.g. mid gray text on top of dark gray background), often combined with 1px borders and/or 1px thick fonts.

I constantly need to either zoom on such websites or crank up screen brightness to the max (or both) to be able to see anything (or even better, not visit such sites ever again).

That link you pointed out has:

- mid gray font: rgb(122, 125, 126)

- dark blue tint background: rgb(14, 21, 24)

- 1px border that is nearly invisible against background: rgb(37, 42, 44)

That link text has unacceptable contrast: https://webaim.org/resources/contrastchecker/?fcolor=7A7D7E&... , not to say the border: https://webaim.org/resources/contrastchecker/?fcolor=252A2C&... .

At least main text has passable grade: https://webaim.org/resources/contrastchecker/?fcolor=A89F91&...



IMHO current USA government is somewhat inverse to China.

US government now is a kakistocracy made out of sycophants to the biggest egomaniac this generation have ever seen. Who is only driven by personal wealth and attention.

Any billionaire capitalist psychopath openly promising to give cash and attention to orange musollini gets a free reign to do anything (they could be even not from USA) - it’s oligarchy.

China is not that. Xi and CCP are much more principled than emotional children in USA.


Xi is intelligent and capable of long-term planning.

The only similarity I see is that neither Xi nor our Narcissist-in-Chief brook any criticism; but aside from the "Let 1,000 Flowers Bloom" campaign of Mao, that has always been China's domestic policy.


It's not that a leader is capable of long-term planning, it's that a system is. I am a big proponent for democracy, but the fact is simple that when you do a massive regime change every ~4 years, nothing big will get done. You have about 2 good years to do something, and most big projects simply require more time than that.

China, unlike the US, can look 10 years into the future and consistently execute towards a goal. That's not because of leaders, it's because the systems are fundamentally designed this way.

It's like the two party system in the US. It's because of first past the post in the Constitution. The system is designed to do this, so it does it. The US is designed to be unable to plan or execute long term vision.


I 100% agree for the fact that biggest systematic root problem USA has is first past the post voting system.

Though how did US managed to be long term thinking since world wars up to ~1980s or 90s? Was it just generational trauma of world wars that allowed to align opinions between parties? And by trauma I mean some combo of real trauma to not have WW2 again to the capitalistict and globalistic drive to be world’s hegemony.


It is not even first past the post that is the problem. Even if you had some sort of ranked voting or parliamentary system you would still end up with the same problem. The person in charge gets changed too frequently to be able to have long term plans. 8 years is too short to execute a plan that will take 10 or 20 years.

I think this is why FDR was a successful president and was able to get so much done. He had 3 complete terms and a partial 4th term.

If you are going to have shorter terms you need to have your successor continue with your plans, but in a liberal democracy you don't know who is going to follow you. Even if your party wins, your successor might not continue with the plan.


In preferential Systems you must chase the centre, in the USA it might be trains versus cars, in Australia because both sides are chasing the centre they will both agree on a train line it's just the specifics they will argue about which believe leads to better outcomes.

At least from my experience I would say change of government won't lead to cancellation of a project or reform just an expansion or contraction in scope.

You can't do something like implement a 1 child policy and stick to it for decades causing a demographic collapse because it wouldn't have broad appeal from the population.


Your last paragraph is my point. Some policies may be good, but not popular. (I'm not suggesting the one child policy is good). How would you be able to continue a policy like the one child policy in a democracy for decades? You wouldn't be able to. With China since their leaders are there longer and because the leaders have a more consistent world view they were able to continue with such a policy.

> It's sad that even introductory statistics courses skip this simple intuition.

I was probably lucky.

We got homework as one of the first lessons in statistics course, for exactly this case.

Roll pair of dice, save the result, do it 200 (or some other bigger number) times, plot the histogram, do some maths, maybe provide any conclusions, etc.

Such things then definitely stuck with you for a long time.


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