Disclaimer up front: I work for GM, but not on vehicle development.
For #1, what would you do? Ship a much simpler product or ship a worse product?
In the current system Tier 1 supplier can concentrate expertise in a single area and spread development costs across many OEMs. A single OEM cannot effectively compete with this cost structure.
Tesla is notable for many things; one of them being its vertical integration. So far Tesla has been able to compete by both building simple cars (excluding the X, which is another story entirely) and charging quite a lot of money. They have also had serious quality issues, probably relating to their vertical integration. These quality issues may be resolved, but by that time either they or their competitors will have developed a new product, and then they will have to go through the development and refinement cycle again, at huge cost.
Regarding #2: the iPhone came out in 2007. Since then, there have been about 7 development cycles. For most automobile platforms there have been 3 or fewer development cycles since 2007. Before the iPhone, there was no real concept of remote update of mobile devices.
Automakers have caught onto the trend and you will see more mainstream OEMs doing remote updates pretty soon.
I think seeing more automakers doing remote updates is pretty scary actually, at least if they can't do it right. Which automaker had it so you could hack the infotainment system to stop a car?[1]
Tesla at least has a very good separate systems for the console and deeper underyling controls. Tesla's were designed properly from the beginning, and perhaps that's just it, if you have to add something like autosteering on after the fact it can't be as secure? Perhaps other automakers will get better with time though... From a wired article,
> Rogers likens [Tesla's system] to the way avionics and Wi-Fi systems are configured on commercial airliners. The Wi-Fi is able to get GPS location data about the plane from the avionics system, but a gateway implements tight controls over what data can pass between the two. In the same way, Rogers says, “we know [the Tesla gateway] stops the obvious stuff. But I haven’t tested it to see what happens if I hack the gateway. If we were able to hack the gateway, then we could control any part of the car just like the Jeep hackers.”
>Automakers have caught onto the trend and you will see more mainstream OEMs doing remote updates pretty soon.
I don't know if your serious or hopeful? To simply have the computer that controls my transmissions shifting flashed cost me over $200 at the dealership. Do you think the dealership is going to give up this revenue stream?
Could you imagine paying for every update that comes across an Android mobile or tablet?
I would love to believe that mainstream car manufacturers have caught up but I don't. As you mention yourself, the product cycle for cars is easily 3 years and the EVs that most mainstream car manufacturers have announced here in 2016 that they will market in 2018-2020 are less ambitious compared to the models Tesla markets already now. So give it another 3 years from 2018 and I would expect GM, VW, Mercedes, Toyota et all to have compatible EVs in 2021-2023.
This kind of snark seems uncalled for. He announced up front that he works for GM to let readers assess possible bias, and then he made an earnest on-topic comment. Working for GM doesn’t a priori turn someone into a PR flack.
I don't think anyone has mentioned Tesla in any company meetings that I've been to.
To be perfectly clear: Tesla and Elon have done many amazing things, and I like their approach in many areas: Marketing EVs as luxury vehicles is genius, remote updates are amazing, etc.
Elon has a daring attitude that is very refreshing to see, launching or running many companies simultaneously, making big bets on things like the Gigafactory, etc.
But they also do some silly stuff too, like the falcon wing doors on the X, and some of their vehicle assembly systems, while cool looking may be a bit too cutting edge. There's some stuff that you just don't try to prove on the production line while it is making your bread and butter.
Anyway, while my original comment may not have been nuanced, I do have a nuanced view of Tesla.
the falcon wing doors were a little wonky and the source of delays.... but the factory automation... i'm curious what you think.... because i think that is where they are really innovating. they say general assembly will be completely automated and no workers will touch these cars within a year or two.
Anything can be automated if it is designed for automation. The corollary is that if it cannot be automated, you don't do it (this will probably be an expensive lesson).
The question is: Will the automation pay off?
A machine that replaces 1 worker may cost $100,000 to $500,000 (factoring robotics, machine vision, and error proofing). The design for the part and design for automated assembly may be comparable. Now you've spent $1,000,000 to automate your carpet install. Congratulations. You could have installed carpet for 10 years manually at that price.
The big question to me is: Can Telsa learn Design for Automation in a scalable way? Other companies have tried it before and has never really payed off. iPhones are still largely hand-assembled for instance. I think the approach may pay off in the next 10-20 years, especially in light of how cheap small components have become due to the rise of smartphones; and the rise of Machine Learning.
To be clear,these are just my impressions from observations.
I agree, regarding 2 again. Right now software upgrades come through service centers, it isn't going to be difficult to push it remotely for each user.
For #1, what would you do? Ship a much simpler product or ship a worse product?
In the current system Tier 1 supplier can concentrate expertise in a single area and spread development costs across many OEMs. A single OEM cannot effectively compete with this cost structure.
Tesla is notable for many things; one of them being its vertical integration. So far Tesla has been able to compete by both building simple cars (excluding the X, which is another story entirely) and charging quite a lot of money. They have also had serious quality issues, probably relating to their vertical integration. These quality issues may be resolved, but by that time either they or their competitors will have developed a new product, and then they will have to go through the development and refinement cycle again, at huge cost.
Regarding #2: the iPhone came out in 2007. Since then, there have been about 7 development cycles. For most automobile platforms there have been 3 or fewer development cycles since 2007. Before the iPhone, there was no real concept of remote update of mobile devices.
Automakers have caught onto the trend and you will see more mainstream OEMs doing remote updates pretty soon.