you could be right. i only started thinking about OD with this thread and have no inside information. that said, a marketplace seems like the ultimate ambition for two reasons.
1. one co-founder is a VC who previously led a marketplace business, paypal. VCs are already conditioned to aim for marketplaces. tasting marketplace success as an operator probably only deepens this reflex. it's harder to eat ground beef when you're used to wagyu.
2. if a marketplace is possible, why not? it creates a larger moat to keep out competitors and assuming they don't abuse monopolistic power, a single marketplace can make pricing fairer (more buyers, more sellers) and more efficient (lower fees). instead of 6%, what if OD enables a world where transaction fees are 0.5% or 1%? the classic disruption playbook (hi, telsa!) is to aim for a dominant market position by starting high, then using technology to steadily reduce prices, expand use cases, and gain market share.
I come from a marketplace background myself and went through two bubbles so you were spot on when you said it was easy for me to say "bets are off in a bubble"--it was easy! And it would have been even easier for me to say marketplace = no brainer. But I just think there are some benefits to leveraging existing demand-side players.
At the risk of agreeing with you too much, though, "why not?" is true, but I think the numbers could be pretty attractive regardless if they ever go/get there.
No inside info here either, btw, though I like to think I get some of the nuances in this market. Sounds like you do as well.
1. one co-founder is a VC who previously led a marketplace business, paypal. VCs are already conditioned to aim for marketplaces. tasting marketplace success as an operator probably only deepens this reflex. it's harder to eat ground beef when you're used to wagyu.
2. if a marketplace is possible, why not? it creates a larger moat to keep out competitors and assuming they don't abuse monopolistic power, a single marketplace can make pricing fairer (more buyers, more sellers) and more efficient (lower fees). instead of 6%, what if OD enables a world where transaction fees are 0.5% or 1%? the classic disruption playbook (hi, telsa!) is to aim for a dominant market position by starting high, then using technology to steadily reduce prices, expand use cases, and gain market share.