For a W-2 employee taking the standard deduction, perhaps.
The IRS cannot correctly calculate what the typical small business owner owes, what the typical real estate investor owes, what the typical upper middle class family owes, because they don't have all the information available to them.
The IRS probably has enough information to file 1040EZs for most people, but certainly not enough for 1040A, 1040, or most business returns.
So, of the 293 million returns filed, about 18.6 million or 6.3% of them could be auto-filed by the IRS. About 1 in 16 total returns and about 1 in 8 personal returns.
To me, 6.3% (or even 13%) is a far cry from "all the typical cases". They can mostly handle one particular case; that might be the case that you personally have; I have no objection to them offering that as a service. Just don't be confused and think that that that's all the typical cases.
Great analysis. One thing to add though - some of these people have to also file state returns. Which in TurboTax pretty much automatic, but without it it'd be separate return which has to be filed separately - which means same work as for Federal, so people would still need something like TurboTax - unless also each state that has income tax makes their own system too.
I do expect that would happen over time (even to the extent that states would change their tax laws to align with the federal auto-calculated tax systems).
I support most systems that would take the burden and aggravation off the American public. I also worry that it would make it even more opaque than it is today. (I don't believe we'd have the current rate of taxation nor spending if we hadn't instituted a payroll withholding scheme and Americans had to actually save and write a check to the government each year.)
The IRS cannot correctly calculate what the typical small business owner owes, what the typical real estate investor owes, what the typical upper middle class family owes, because they don't have all the information available to them.