Your last point is exactly the same as mine, just with different numbers. It still comes down to a gamble - the chance of you succeeding is out of your control, only the chance of you failing is in your control. Hence the analogy to video poker.
Just like gambling, the lucky ones will hit the jackpot early and crow how it's easily possible if you put in the right effort and time (just like they did). The unlucky ones will spend time and money trying to hit that jackpot.
If we step through the numbers, and assume a median of 4 years per real attempt with a 25% success rate:
First round of ten 22 year old, equally skilled and driven entrepreneurs, two succeed. The remaining eight 26 year olds are failures, but try again.
Four years later, two more will succeed, the remaining six are now 30, with two major failures under their belts. But they're driven, and try again.
Now at 34, another two succeed, and the remaining four are trying to drive up the will to let one more of them succeed.
Twelve years, six winners, four losers.
The median entrepreneur will have to spend 12 years - 3 attempts - of their lives to reach success. And that's the median, there will be some (somewhere around 2%) who could never reach success in their own lifespan, regardless of how hard they try, through no fault of their own.
I get the appeal though, just like I get the appeal of gambling. If you do win, you have a chance to win big. But there's a downside too. And that downside is the opportunity cost of all that time, energy and money spent trying to hit it big.
Just like gambling, the lucky ones will hit the jackpot early and crow how it's easily possible if you put in the right effort and time (just like they did). The unlucky ones will spend time and money trying to hit that jackpot.
If we step through the numbers, and assume a median of 4 years per real attempt with a 25% success rate:
First round of ten 22 year old, equally skilled and driven entrepreneurs, two succeed. The remaining eight 26 year olds are failures, but try again.
Four years later, two more will succeed, the remaining six are now 30, with two major failures under their belts. But they're driven, and try again.
Now at 34, another two succeed, and the remaining four are trying to drive up the will to let one more of them succeed.
Twelve years, six winners, four losers.
The median entrepreneur will have to spend 12 years - 3 attempts - of their lives to reach success. And that's the median, there will be some (somewhere around 2%) who could never reach success in their own lifespan, regardless of how hard they try, through no fault of their own.
I get the appeal though, just like I get the appeal of gambling. If you do win, you have a chance to win big. But there's a downside too. And that downside is the opportunity cost of all that time, energy and money spent trying to hit it big.