My metric for projects is that if I'm not returning near-term value at least double my billing rate, it's probably not worth doing.
If you are, the difference between 2.2x, double, and 1.8x is pretty negligible - non zero, for sure, but not worth the additional 20% effort to minimize variance.
If you aren't, as he says, no amount of diligence will fix it, because it's simply the wrong project.
It's the classic penny-wise pound-foolish.
So by my conclusion, many of the 'project management' activities that people do are at best wasteful or indeed actively harmful.
If you are, the difference between 2.2x, double, and 1.8x is pretty negligible - non zero, for sure, but not worth the additional 20% effort to minimize variance.
If you aren't, as he says, no amount of diligence will fix it, because it's simply the wrong project.
It's the classic penny-wise pound-foolish.
So by my conclusion, many of the 'project management' activities that people do are at best wasteful or indeed actively harmful.