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Who wants to listen to a party pooper like that?

Yes, yes, yes! The exact correct point.

Mandlebrot's finance papers, in published in the 1960's, refute Black and Schole's Nobel Prize winning theories of the 1990's. Who wants to hear that?

Does Mandlebrot rate a Nobel himself? Why of course not...

Mandlebrot pointed the way to "another country", one which marketing can not describe...



Actually, I thought I read about someone who bought a certain position in the market such that, if everything was priced correctly, they would lose a known amount of money each day.

But every time a "black swan" sort of event occurs, they'd make big money. It was on TV, so I don't have a citation handy, but I suppose that they could be said to be making money off of the assumption that people can't correctly price these things.


That would be Taleb & Universa (the true extent of whose success has been questioned, fwiw)


I'd like to know that position. Because then I could try to invert it (i.e. turn longs into shorts and vice versa).


If you'd searched for "Black Swan" it would have told you all you need to know.

Betting $1 at 1,000,000:1 that today something unlikely will happen is pretty much the same as playing the lottery.




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