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Kodak and Fujifilm faced a similar dilemma when digital photography emerged. Fuji adapted while Kodak collapsed. But there market forces where at work.

Usually when a company faces issues like this it is very difficult to adapt because existing power structures within the company benefits from the status quo. Usually you need an external force to destabilize the existing system. It has been discussed here on HN that this is very difficult to do in scientific community because of the network effects of scientific publishing : more scientists publishing in currently established journals gives other scientists incentives to publish in the same established journals for the sake of reputation.

Reputable editors starting a new open access journal could improve this situation



I think the situation is somewhat different. Kodak was a regular market leader making regular profit margins. I'm not sure how much of it is true, but I recall reading that they invented the digital camera and then shelved it because it would compete with their own business. That implies that they could've produced it, perhaps at the cost of their analogue business, but at least with the potential of becoming market leader in this new market and reaching similar margins.

For Elsevier, that's simply unlikely to be possible. Even if they manage to successfully transform into an analytics business, the margins they'd be able to achieve would be far lower, because prices would no longer be artificially inflated.

But yes, there are external forces now pressurising them, and I think that's why they're transforming into an analytics company - to survive afterwards. But they're holding on to the old model as long as possible, because they're going to take a loss.


Kodak even began shifting, they produced their own sensors, their own cameras etc, they sold their sensors to top camera makers. They had a good plan. They didn't expect the very sudden disruption of digital cameras though.


Elsevier issue is not primary technological issue, it is issue of power and control. They profits are from being must-publish-in and must-buy-it for most ambitious scientists and institutions. Therefore they are able to charge prices that would not work in competitive market environment.

Afaik, Kodak could adapt, because its issue was technological change at its core.

With Elsevier, the issue is that institutions that actually benefited from being the only one able to pay those high prices (and thus less rich scientific institutions being disadvantaged even more) are not benefiting from that anymore and rebel.


I'm pretty sure that market forces will reach Elsevier soon enough ;) Slowly at first, then all at once.




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