I think you may be surprised by the outcome. The real question is, do the Tory party want to commit political suicide by administering a no deal brexit, and risk never getting re-elected until the subsequent turmoil subsides? I think not.
Farage and the rest are no where to be seen (he still collects his salary from the EU apparently though!).
The upshot of all this mess will probably be as unlikely as the referendum result itself. Personally, I'm expecting the unexpected, and can see a total revocation of article 50, resulting most probably from a people's vote (anything else would be undemocratic). I mean, what other realistic option is there that isn't utterly pie-in-the-sky stupid?!
> commit political suicide by administering a no deal Brexit
I don't know how this would be political suicide, it is currently the most popular option in polling, and it's not considered to have any greater economic costs than the other options (including reversing the referendum decision entirely!).
1. It is not the most popular option in polling. Right now it is to remain in the EU.
2. The idea that it has no greater cost than the options is ridiculous. UK Treasury and economists from all around the world have all come to the conclusion that a hard brexit is significantly more harmful than a soft brexit. And it's common sense since it imposes trade friction on the UK's largest trading partner.
UK Treasury and economists from all around the world have all come to the conclusion that a hard brexit is significantly more harmful than a soft brexit
The problem is that these same people all came to the conclusion that on voting Leave, during the negotiation period the UK would lose 500,000 - 800,000 jobs and enter a massive recession caused by "uncertainty".
The UK has since hit the lowest levels of unemployment on record and economic growth is outstripping Germany, France and Italy.
Economists have no credibility with regards to Brexit. None. They have less than zero credibility in fact: if they're saying something, it's a good sign the reality is the opposite.
Thus the idea that no deal would be bad for the UK is a deeply suspect one. There are many things the UK can do outside the EU that would accelerate growth even further still, according to conventional economics. But regardless of what you personally believe, at this point it's just guessing - your views have no more legitimacy than the views of people who think any sort of deal with the EU is bound to be harmful to the country and its prosperity.
How can the potential breakup of the UK, increased economic uncertainty, increased political uncertainty, and a complete lack of plan yield any good outcomes for the Tories in the mid-to-long term? I mean, it may be popular, short term, but you have to remember that the people screaming their lungs out in favour of Brexit are probably the least informed about its potential consequences. And they are probably also the most affected by the potential consequences - they will turn as soon as the going gets tough.
Farage and the rest are no where to be seen (he still collects his salary from the EU apparently though!).
The upshot of all this mess will probably be as unlikely as the referendum result itself. Personally, I'm expecting the unexpected, and can see a total revocation of article 50, resulting most probably from a people's vote (anything else would be undemocratic). I mean, what other realistic option is there that isn't utterly pie-in-the-sky stupid?!