Estimates are always wrong only if they are concrete estimates as if they were certain.
If, instead, they are 90% ranges (I am 90% sure that this will be done between x and y) then it is much easier to estimate accurately. It is also easier to spot bullshit (if the spread doesn't go up as your time to completion moves further from now, it is probably a bullshit estimate).
I really love the method from The Clean Coder, where you make best/median/worst estimates for tasks and then add them up to a mean and standard deviation. This helps capture the truth of “we don’t know how long it’s going to take, but it’s likely between x and y”.
Where this still falls apart, for me, is knowing how many hours per day I’ll be able to spend on each project. I have multiple clients, and things come up. This method has gotten me very good at the budget aspect of project estimation, but the scheduling aspect still slips some (it’s rare that more hours in a day become available)
If, instead, they are 90% ranges (I am 90% sure that this will be done between x and y) then it is much easier to estimate accurately. It is also easier to spot bullshit (if the spread doesn't go up as your time to completion moves further from now, it is probably a bullshit estimate).