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You reminded of a sort-of related quote: When an expert says something is possible, they're almost certainly right and when an expert says something is impossible, they're almost certainly wrong.


I believe the quote is from sci-fi master Arthur C. Clarke:

When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.


You're right, thanks! I didn't know that. For reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke%27s_three_laws


Except if the expert in question is a physicist; rigorously determining exactly what is impossible, and why, is basically their job.


Any scientist's understanding of what is possible and what is impossible relies on currently understood theory. It happens rarely, but our understanding of what is possible at even the most basic level is sometimes upended (such as the discovery of nuclear forces, quantum mechanics, and relativity). The most prescient of scientists come clean on this fact when making predictions.

"It seems, therefore, on the whole most probable that the sun has not illuminated the earth for 100,000,000 years, and almost certain that he has not done so for 500,000,000 years. As for the future, we may say, with equal certainty, that inhabitants of the earth can not continue to enjoy the light and heat essential to their life for many million years longer unless sources now unknown to us are prepared in the great storehouse of creation."

Lord Kelvin, http://zapatopi.net/kelvin/papers/on_the_age_of_the_suns_hea...


Well, yea, under the assumption that the current theory is complete and right.

There are quite a few examples in history where great physicians have been wrong.

Maybe todays physicians are more careful because of that but let's see how radical the view on our universe changes in the future.


physicist = a scientist who studies or practices physics.

physician = doctor.


Says you.



I think the problem arises when a physicist is asked to speculate on an engineering problem.


Physicists can set the upper boundaries on engineering problems, engineers can do as much as they can to approach that boundary but will not cross it unless the first person was wrong.


Physics also identifies the dynamics, which are a special type of constraint. Engineers also consider economics, which usually limits you to far less than physics allows.


So if you consult an expert, anything is almost certainly possible? ;-)


Still, it's true. Theoretical constraints that exist now might well be removed with new scientific insights. Trying to predict whether something is possible at all is useless given our limited understanding of things. If an expert says something is possible.. it probably will be developed soon. If an expect says something is not possible, it probably will be developed (far) further in the future.




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