Laws aren't programs and judges and juries aren't required to interpret them like a robot. Odds are that a reasonable jury would find you had hired a hitman and just convict you and move on.
Please see people who are convicted on limited or circumstantial evidence because everyone is pretty sure they did it. Example Hans Reiser.
> Laws aren't programs and judges and juries aren't required to interpret them like a robot.
I understand that HN and Reddit like to repeat this fact, but it's really not a useful answer to the question I asked. I think you're saying "no, it's not illegal", but you've masked that opinion with trivia.
> limited or circumstantial evidence [...] Hans Reiser
Reiser plead guilty to murdering his wife and disclosed the location of her shallow grave. I'm not sure how limited or circumstantial that is.
Reiser pled not guilty and successfully eliminated all conclusive evidence of his guilt. After they convicted him anyway he disclosed the location of her shallow grave.
I don't think it's masking the issue with trivia at all. If you conspire to kill someone or indeed to commit any crime and your defense rests on a cute use of the law to remain technically on the side of the law while obviously trespassing beyond it you are only as safe as you can convince the jury you are.
If you are more interested in the actual law we could look at justice.gov
Section 1958 renders it illegal: 1) to travel or use facilities of interstate or foreign commerce; 2) with intent that a murder in violation of State or Federal law be committed;
Looking at my state WA states law
RCW 9A.32.030
Murder in the first degree.
(1) A person is guilty of murder in the first degree when:
(a) With a premeditated intent to cause the death of another person, he or she causes the death of such person or of a third person;
If you in effect arranged for someone to die by betting a large sum of money on a prediction market no judge or jury will pick nits and disregard your intent while placing such a bet.
Please see people who are convicted on limited or circumstantial evidence because everyone is pretty sure they did it. Example Hans Reiser.