Wouldn't you also have to add in the second-order effects of the long-term impact on society of that 30yo being able to return to the workforce in a more full capacity? I have no dog in this fight and don't really care who gets vaccinated soon. Just trying to sharpen up your analysis.

that may (or may not) be true, but it likely doesn't matter. you're thinking of the system as essentially static, so you're only solving for a portion of the problem (the naive solution). dynamic systems like pandemics have intertwined higher-order effects, which can often drown out the more obvious direct effects in unintuitive ways.

for instance, you're ignoring the limited flow rate of vaccine production and the significant friction of wide distribution, which at least means there's an inflection point before which it makes more sense to target "superspreaders" first.

the optimal answer to a dynamic system is rarely the static one.