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Take this as uninformed speculation (read: I'm not willing to spend the 6 hours pulling together the citations I need for this argument), but it seems to me that some of this bubble is a response to current investing conditions.

Everyone is concerned that we're moving into a second dip, possibly worldwide depression. With the problems with the Euro, Europe isn't an appealing place to invest. the BRIC countries are often risky investments due to government interference, and would be hit extremely hard with a worldwide depression. The American stock market is volatile, and seems maxed out right now.

Yet people are worried about gold and other inflation hedges as well. It has exploded, but is risky as a primary investment vehicle. Real Estate is a bad hedge because its values are still above what seems to be market value. Bonds aren't safe if there are a series of defaults.

Thus, there are no "safe" vehicles for money. However, these social tech companies grew in a recession, so seem less risky than their objective risk profiles would indicate. The bubble, then, may be relative to other investments, not because of their own inherent value.

In short, when safe (relatively) investments look risky, risky investments look less risky in comparison.



William Gross said in 2007 that everything he sees is in a bubble - that all assets across all markets are overpriced.

There was no significant correction from then - thanks to ECB and FED, who decided to finance the perpetrators with even more credit.


What could it possibly mean for all assets to be overpriced? What could they be overpriced relative to?


In (value?) investment asset prices are always reflected against expected future returns via increase of price or via dividends.

Edit: So the assets are overpriced relative against their future returns.




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