> If GDP per capita were relevant, then Luxembourg, Monaco, and Liechtenstein would be the dominant superpowers.
You're missing the forest for the trees. The point of looking at GDP per capita is to get a sense of where China's economic development is at for the average Chinese person.
As I have stated, China's behavior has a lot more to do with internal issues and challenges than external. Even Taiwan is largely a distraction that's a convenient tool for the CCP to manage internal politics.
China's economic situation is not as rosy as the CCP would like the world to believe. The CCP is well aware of this and certainly knows that if it doesn't deliver on its economic promises, which essentially boil down to "we'll escape the middle income trap", China will be in a very dangerous decline.
Time is running out to deliver on its promises, which is likely one of the primary reasons it's taking a much more belligerent and aggressive stance on the world stage. An economically and demographically healthy and confident country doesn't isolate itself the way China has.
> It's true that no country wants a China dominant in the region, but it's also true that no country wants a China cut off from their economies. Which puts them between a rock and a hard place. Do you think an iron miner in Western Australia is going to be happy with his house being foreclosed on because he can't pay the bills because it's all for the good cause of defending Taiwan's autonomy?
You seem to think that China's aggression stops at Taiwan. It doesn't and everyone in the region knows this.
You mentioned Australia. Australia already been subject to Chinese economic corruption and coercion for years. When Australia stated that the origins of COVID-19 should be investigated, China responded with a trade war[1]. Now CCP mouthpieces are issuing military threats against Australia[2].
Japan is another country that China is increasingly trying to bully. A CCP mouthpiece even put out a video this year that stated "We will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously. We will do this until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time."[3]
Finally, on its other flank, China is increasingly provoking India[4].
This is simply not "normal" behavior for a country that genuinely seeks peace and stability. China's behavior is increasingly aggressive and highly irresponsible.
> My goal here is to dissuade anyone from the notion that a war between the US and China is in any way something with a preordained outcome or somehow costless for any involved party. It'd be a massive destruction of lives and wealth. If either country gets it into their head that such a war could be conducted quickly, cheaply, and easily, it increases the likelihood of war, which is something we should strive to avoid at all costs.
I don't think anybody here has raised this notion. I certainly haven't. Everybody knows that a hot conflict could very well result in massive losses for everyone involved.
Again, what I think your comments gloss over is the fact that the growing tension in Asia /the Indo-Pacific is a result of China's increasingly aggressive political, economic and military behavior. China is the one bullying its neighbors. China is the one engaged in a build-up of military capacity that is not merely defensive in nature. China is the one that claims territory that belongs to multiple other countries under international law and, in the case of India, is literally trying to grab land. China is the one that throws temper tantrums and sends "wolf warriors" to intimidate diplomats anytime other countries don't do what it wants. China is the one making violent threats against other countries through embarrassingly juvenile military propaganda[5].
The US isn't doing this stuff. European nations aren't doing this stuff. Taiwan isn't doing this stuff. Japan isn't doing this stuff. Australia isn't doing this stuff. India isn't doing this stuff. South Korea isn't doing this stuff. The Philippines isn't doing this stuff.
I feel like we're talking past each other; I agree with 90% of what you say. It's just that you're focusing on the forces drivigg China's behavior, whether China is fostering stability or not, and its broader role in the region in the 21st century, while I'm trying to anticipate exactly what would happen in a conflict over Taiwan.
Yes, China is acting as a bully. But the universal response isn't standing up to China but cowering before it. US airlines are scared to even acknowledge the existence of a place called Taiwan. When Muji accidentally labeled some hangers as "Made in Taiwan," it only took a few days before it groveled before China and begged for forgiveness. I'm 100% in agreement with you that these things are ridiculous and a sign of deep-seated insecurity on mainland China's part. But these incidents also do not make me optimistic about how regional players will react in the case of war. Businesses and the general population will be eager for the conflict to be wound down as quickly as possible, regardless of long-term strategic costs. And without a broad regional coalition strongly committed to restraining China and rolling back any gains it has made during a conflict, Taiwan is (literally) dead in the water.
Corporations are spineless. But that's not really relevant to the issue of military action.
Again, I live in Taiwan and I'm realistic about Taiwan's odds of defending itself successfully without help from the West and Japan, which I put at close to 0.
But I'm cautiously optimistic. Now that the US has removed itself from Afghanistan, there is a clear reorientation of its diplomatic and military focus to the Indo-Pacific. The US is getting closer to Taiwan, which is taking its defensive capabilities more seriously (albeit too late for comfort). Japan is basically remilitarizing and being more vocal about its willingness to counter Chinese threats. Australia is aligning itself with the US and UK to counter China. The US is even getting closer to India.
China is only going to get more dangerous as its demographic and economic situations become more precarious, but its growing isolation is the best thing under the circumstances and might be one of the only things that keeps it in check.
If it lashes out and is able to annex Taiwan, there will be significant consequences for the US and West, and the Indo-Pacific region won't be the same.
But here's my final thought: if China takes Taiwan, it will take the US down a big notch and create a lot of uncertainty for the US role globally going forward. But this event does not really pose an existential threat to the US. The US would remain a very powerful nation even after a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Certainly nobody is going to invade the US.
On the other hand, an attack on or invasion of Taiwan is an existential event for the CCP. If the CCP miscalculates in any way, it's the end of the CCP. Interestingly, even if CCP wins a battle for Taiwan, the CCP might ultimately lose the war because it's unlikely that the CCP can take Taiwan and get away with it economically and diplomatically. For a country that's already on shaky footing in these areas, it could be a case of "be careful what you wish for -- you just might get it".
You're missing the forest for the trees. The point of looking at GDP per capita is to get a sense of where China's economic development is at for the average Chinese person.
As I have stated, China's behavior has a lot more to do with internal issues and challenges than external. Even Taiwan is largely a distraction that's a convenient tool for the CCP to manage internal politics.
China's economic situation is not as rosy as the CCP would like the world to believe. The CCP is well aware of this and certainly knows that if it doesn't deliver on its economic promises, which essentially boil down to "we'll escape the middle income trap", China will be in a very dangerous decline.
Time is running out to deliver on its promises, which is likely one of the primary reasons it's taking a much more belligerent and aggressive stance on the world stage. An economically and demographically healthy and confident country doesn't isolate itself the way China has.
> It's true that no country wants a China dominant in the region, but it's also true that no country wants a China cut off from their economies. Which puts them between a rock and a hard place. Do you think an iron miner in Western Australia is going to be happy with his house being foreclosed on because he can't pay the bills because it's all for the good cause of defending Taiwan's autonomy?
You seem to think that China's aggression stops at Taiwan. It doesn't and everyone in the region knows this.
You mentioned Australia. Australia already been subject to Chinese economic corruption and coercion for years. When Australia stated that the origins of COVID-19 should be investigated, China responded with a trade war[1]. Now CCP mouthpieces are issuing military threats against Australia[2].
Japan is another country that China is increasingly trying to bully. A CCP mouthpiece even put out a video this year that stated "We will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously. We will do this until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time."[3]
Finally, on its other flank, China is increasingly provoking India[4].
This is simply not "normal" behavior for a country that genuinely seeks peace and stability. China's behavior is increasingly aggressive and highly irresponsible.
> My goal here is to dissuade anyone from the notion that a war between the US and China is in any way something with a preordained outcome or somehow costless for any involved party. It'd be a massive destruction of lives and wealth. If either country gets it into their head that such a war could be conducted quickly, cheaply, and easily, it increases the likelihood of war, which is something we should strive to avoid at all costs.
I don't think anybody here has raised this notion. I certainly haven't. Everybody knows that a hot conflict could very well result in massive losses for everyone involved.
Again, what I think your comments gloss over is the fact that the growing tension in Asia /the Indo-Pacific is a result of China's increasingly aggressive political, economic and military behavior. China is the one bullying its neighbors. China is the one engaged in a build-up of military capacity that is not merely defensive in nature. China is the one that claims territory that belongs to multiple other countries under international law and, in the case of India, is literally trying to grab land. China is the one that throws temper tantrums and sends "wolf warriors" to intimidate diplomats anytime other countries don't do what it wants. China is the one making violent threats against other countries through embarrassingly juvenile military propaganda[5].
The US isn't doing this stuff. European nations aren't doing this stuff. Taiwan isn't doing this stuff. Japan isn't doing this stuff. Australia isn't doing this stuff. India isn't doing this stuff. South Korea isn't doing this stuff. The Philippines isn't doing this stuff.
[1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-03/heres-what-happened-b...
[2] https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-09-16...
[3] https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/in-propaganda-video-c...
[4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Why-is-China-making-a-perman...
[5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBOho1AOKYY