I'm agreeing with your analysis in general. What do you think the odds are of Netflix dropping prices again in the face of competition as they did in 2004? That's certainly marketshare over profit. I presume they'd discount the hybrid customers which are precisely those members that are 'in transition'.
I don't think the odds are that great (though I think it's what I'd do in the same situation). I figure Netflix still thinks they have the right strategy and they've already taken the hit for the customer loss. So why not ride it out and see where it takes them.
Truth is they've probably earned a little arrogance in this arena. People questioned their streaming strategy at first and we all know how that worked out.
