1.) Kyiv is 50mi from the border, Baghdad is 200mi.
2.) Iraq was a numerically far superior force to the coalition, with >500,000 active soldiers and >1.3 million total. Clearing out that many people simply takes time.
3) The coalition moved slowly and largely neutralized resistance along their way, they didn't skip settlements or cities. Russia is trying deep strikes and bypassing/avoiding many of the larger cities/settlements. And those places are not necessarily under any kind of coherent siege at this point either.
4) Coalition losses in the entire war, where they were again, fighting a numerically far superior force, were tiny. ~200 killed. Estimates of Russian losses so far are 10x+ that and with a lot of lost equipment.
I'm not suggesting I think the Ukrainian position is great or that they're poised to win other than via long insurgency, just that I don't think the comparison works.
Coalition losses in the entire war, where they were again, fighting a numerically far superior force, were tiny. ~200 killed. Estimates of Russian losses so far are 10x+ that
The latest figure reported by Ukraine was they have killed 3500 Russians already. So allowing for a few hours of losses, about 20x.
I find those estimates very hard to believe. The real number of deaths is probably in the mid hundreds on both sides. Bear in mind for each soldier killed you’d expect several times that injured and I doubt the Russians have 10,000 total casualties at this point. That would be the equivalent of several dozen Battalion Tactical Groups disabled.
Last I read was 4500x a few hours ago.[0] I agree it's hard to place faith in the figures. However, one would assume the majority of the fighting hasn't appeared online. Browsing the mediaverse today I did see a few (like 3 different) videos showing what appeared to be unique columns of disabled Russian vehicles. Apparently these were unique, owing to different surrounding environs. That could easily have added to 300 casualties in itself... IIRC one column was a failed Russian push in to Kiev, one was outside Kharkiv and a separate one I can't recall the location. Widely reported were 200 dead Russians at yesterday's airfield. And there was subsequent fighting there too. So it's roughly in the anticipated order of magnitude.
Ukraine is calling on Red Cross to come and help them return the bodies, another brilliant move from them. It means - as far as I can see - that they are ready to show their cards to Red Cross and the international community.
Also we see Russians ask for unconditional talks, which wouldn't be happening if they felt they had a good chance.
I think, as I have hinted to before, that Russians would be wise to break a leg instead of going down to Ukraine.
Same for Russian factory workers, store workers and railway workers: if one can delay/prevent young ones from being sent down to the righteously furious Ukrainians, that might save many lives.
The latest figure reported by Ukraine was they have killed 3500 Russians already.
My understanding was that this number was their claim for total casualties (meaning mostly WIA). And that this got lazily cut-and-pasted all over the place to mean KIA.
Iraq saw lots of Civilian casualties and we are not seeing it in this invasion. As someone who opposes this invasion 100% it has been quite stark to see cordial behaviour of Russian soldiers until now with the local populace. They are not hostile. Infrastructure is intact, electricity and internet is working. There is no vibe of an occupation. There are no massed artillery barrages. Civilian casualties are probably lower then Russian Army’s. There seem to be no embedded journalism from Russians. (I don’t follow Russian propaganda outlets and have avoided the tankie echo chamber). Contrast this with so many blue ticks and Ukrainian media outlets spreading outright lies and going viral. If US was directly invoked, 10 fact checking orgs would have propped by now and started warning on game videos being spread. At the end it is still an invasion and Ukrainians will be killed and come under an occupation, but US is more ruthless with its occupations. US media machine can whip anyone into a frenzy with their reporting. I absolutely don’t support sanctions on Russia, only Russians are going to beat the brunt of it. On one hand we are seeing visuals of Russians protesting and want them to stand up against Putin and Western governments seem to be ok with brutalizing those same people, even if in minority.
War is a nasty virus on brain for people away from all this. It is a privileged take but mental faculties are overloaded with the emotional language being used. A TV station was showing how to make Molotov cocktails to non-Ukrainian audience. Is that helpful at all?
So much thoughts on this invasion. Have seen maybe 4 conflicts (Kargil, Iraq, Afghanistan and Ukraine); numerous military mobilizations and small scale strikes between sworn enemy nations. It is just bile churning to see the whole events play down with no accountability.
you should tell it to ukranians in general, they seems not to share your sentiment. or to my wife's family and friends who sleep in shelters in kharkiv. or to old neighbors of my wife who discovered leftover smerch stuck in ground between buildings.
i guess they should they wake up and realize that this is actually russian spring comes to free them from occupation by neo-nazi benderovzis that are chaired by jew president?
In the end it is still an occupation, they are brutal there’s no disputing it. Degree of brutality was my point, I have seen how Armies behave and Russian way of capturing towns is brutal which they have yet not displayed in Ukraine.
While Russians are shelling and hitting civilians, that particular tank incident is debunked, it was actually a ukrainian vehicle that was making a really hard turn and accidentally ran over him, also the guy survived. Was just a crazy accident. I think it was used as propaganda earlier on as "russian tank rolls over civilian car". There is a video of the old guy in the car getting rescued, and there is another video of whole incident from a different angle, and it looks pretty clear.
>Did you see those tanks rolling over civilian cars trying to escape?
There's one famous video of an APC going over a car, and it's not clear, but some people have mentioned that it was an Ukranian APC (in any case, the crash looked like a mistake). I don't know whose APC it was, but without having deep knowledge it's really hard to tell just from the footage.
Also, for the record, there are many videos of american tanks rolling over iraqi cars, even one particularly notable video where they were doing it on purpose as a punishment.
I guess? The basic concept of a tank is you take a bulldozer, put a gun on it, give it to a bunch of sleep-deprived teenagers, then tell them that if they stop moving at any point they're going to be hit by a RPG and burn to death.
There is no embedded journalism by Russia because they don't have an incentive to do so. At home the war is not carried by the public, it has been decided top down, abroad the only news the Russians want to send out is "crisis adverted" and "look at the monsters we defeated". That doesn't work very well when you fight against school teachers armed with Kalashnikovs in breach of international law.
You always need PR for both internal and external audience. Internal discontent has to be managed a lot more than external one. Russians have started putting out videos but there not in the way CNN did in Iraq. Sitting on Abram Tanks and singing praises of glory.
In the end it is still and occupation and people fear Putin’s purge. There will be refugees. Compare how Iraq, Afghan invasions were and this one is. I am not aligned with Russia one bit but difference is indeed stark.
NATO's conduct in Iraq war should be compared to Russia's conduct in it's war in Chechnya. (Hint: off-white skin color people were involved. Something about "Sand N-----", and "Bandits".)
And speaking of Iraq, Biden's "minor incursions" [1] comment before the invasion reminds of US ambassador's 'it's not our business' [2] input to Saddam Hussein before he attacked Kuwait.
"[Biden]: I think what you're going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do."
> Iraq saw lots of Civilian casualties and we are not seeing it in this invasion.
Yes, we are.
> Infrastructure is intact, electricity and internet is working.
Yes, the concept of operations is a quick decapitation (“Demilitarization”, “Denazification”, or “Decommunisation”, depending on Putin’s mood at the moment) strike followed by installing a productive puppet regime.
> There is no vibe of an occupation.
That’s because they haven’t gotten to the occupation point, they are still trying to achieve initial control.
> There seem to be no embedded journalism from Russians.
As if all the information being canned, centralized propaganda, that doesn't require any contact with the real facts on the ground is a good thing?
> If US was directly invoked, 10 fact checking orgs would have propped by now and started warning on game videos being spread.
Numerous fact checkers have done that.
> At the end it is still an invasion and Ukrainians will be killed and come under an occupation, but US is more ruthless with its occupations.
It's sad people don't realize how careful with civilian casualties Russia is, and how in contrast US was brutal in Iraq war.
As you mentioned, civil services are all operational, there are no drone strikes based on questionable intel, artillery strikes are focused and kept on the minimum.
On the other side, we see Ukraine giving weapons and instructing citizens on how to fight, which can only become a disaster.
>On the other side, we see Ukraine giving weapons and instructing citizens on how to fight, which can only become a disaster.
Just so i'll understand, mobilization of citizens (i believe all countries have laws like this) in order to fight invading force and arming them is a disaster ? Could you please expand a bit on more appropriate approach that should be taken instead ?
That is not mobilization. Mobilization is giving them proper military equipment, in the very least they give them uniforms and weapons.
They're effectively camouflaging soldiers as civilians, don't you see a problem with that? How can invading force make a distinction between a civilian and a soldier?
did you actually see what exactly is going on there right now ? my 15 years old nieces in law making molotov cocktails right now to protect their city(kharkiv) . this is after sitting under shelling for past few days.
and you complain that mobilization is not done orderly enough.
Mobilizing should’ve been finished weeks ago. I hope your family stays safe, though I don’t think it’s a good idea for 15 year old to do that. It’s not up to civilians to defend.
1.) Kyiv is 50mi from the border, Baghdad is 200mi.
2.) Iraq was a numerically far superior force to the coalition, with >500,000 active soldiers and >1.3 million total. Clearing out that many people simply takes time.
3) The coalition moved slowly and largely neutralized resistance along their way, they didn't skip settlements or cities. Russia is trying deep strikes and bypassing/avoiding many of the larger cities/settlements. And those places are not necessarily under any kind of coherent siege at this point either.
4) Coalition losses in the entire war, where they were again, fighting a numerically far superior force, were tiny. ~200 killed. Estimates of Russian losses so far are 10x+ that and with a lot of lost equipment.
I'm not suggesting I think the Ukrainian position is great or that they're poised to win other than via long insurgency, just that I don't think the comparison works.