Gambler’s fallacy. You guessed whether he would invade and you were right. That doesn’t mean your next guess is any more likely to be correct.
FWIW, I have had the same concern as you. I don’t really know enough about Putin’s mental state to know whether the concern is valid. I think he would be much more likely to use chemical weapons rather than nuclear.
> Gambler’s fallacy. You guessed whether he would invade and you were right. That doesn’t mean your next guess is any more likely to be correct.
What??? This assumes every opinion comes down to a coin flip. This is clearly not the case. Some people are better predictors for things that don't have guaranteed probability of outcomes.
Meh. I also predicted this invasion would happen, yet I don't see Putin razing Kyiv or using nuclear weapons. There's plenty of opportunity for everyone to be wrong.
FWIW, I have had the same concern as you. I don’t really know enough about Putin’s mental state to know whether the concern is valid. I think he would be much more likely to use chemical weapons rather than nuclear.