Or if you ask a Russian, they'd say replacing Germany with the Ukraine and Russia with the USA in your analogy.
I don't think you are squinting too hard, there is a common view in geopolitics as Russia being a peer (super)power and future tie breaker between the US and China.
Or at least there was until two weeks ago.
One explanation for recent events is China letting Putin stick his head out and by literally sitting back and doing nothing they'll essentially get to own Russia now. Which fits their style of doing things historically.
He can't climb down from the military debacle without getting overthrown.
Similarly, the politicians in countries that so publicly imposed sanctions on him won't be able to backpedal either.
Short of a coup d'etat, a new iron curtain, a fire sale on Russian raw materials and companies. Ultimately, economic subjection to China and atrocities in Ukraine.
"He can't climb down from the military debacle without getting overthrown"
You name it: this is a very possible outcome. Putin is only the tsar, as long he is succesful.
The russian oligarchy is likely not happy about the state of things.
And it would be hard to unwind things, but without Putin new diplomatic solutions might be possible.
The Russian oligarchy is of no consequence these days, he has spent 25 years consolidating power. A popular uprising is the only chance of Putin not dying on the throne and that doesn't appear to be happening.
The protests now are a fraction of what they were last year for Navalny. In retrospect that was probably his dry run. Weeks into this the majority of the Russian population either supports this "special operation" or is too scared to say anything. Same difference, this is the new normal for them just like the good old days.
"The Russian oligarchy is of no consequence these days, he has spent 25 years consolidating power."
Hm, in my perspection he consolidated his power with the oligarchy.
And a popular uprising I do not see coming in the near future, but once all those disillusioned soldiers come home and share their stories of the real war, while they discover how screwed up everything has become at home - then things might change.
The oligarchy wasn't that important anymore, Putin silenced those oligarchs that opposed him and made the others allies. Now those ultra-rich and very powerful allies are loosing that power and money due to that alliance and Putin's actions.
The big question is, what are the other powers to be thinking, the armed forces and the intelligence community? And what's gonna happen of one of those groups decides that Putin is more of a hindrance than a benefit? Or even a risk to their interests?
I don't think you are squinting too hard, there is a common view in geopolitics as Russia being a peer (super)power and future tie breaker between the US and China. Or at least there was until two weeks ago.
One explanation for recent events is China letting Putin stick his head out and by literally sitting back and doing nothing they'll essentially get to own Russia now. Which fits their style of doing things historically.