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So the real story here is that banks did learn their lesson from 2008 (at least in regards to mortgages). The subprime market has been relegated to these fly-by-night operations that are poorly capitalized and pose no systemic risk.


That and inventory risk.

It's a tale as old as commerce. You start by operating a service (brokerage, mortgage underwriting, web storefront, SaaS/PaaS, etc.) You get really good at it, and decide that you might start to warehouse some of the inventory that your customers handle, to improve efficiency and bundle/upsell. Time passes and the value of the inventory you hold exceeds and then dwarfs the value of your platform/service business. Then market conditions change, the value of your inventory declines, your budget blows up and you go bankrupt, learning the hard way that combining two businesses with very different capital dynamics is hard and hazardous.

Also there is a difference between subprime lending and responsible lending that is nonetheless susceptible to interest rate risk. So far we have mostly the latter.


Well, its good that "things are working as intended", but I think there's still the open question of what the state of the US economy will look like in 3 to 6 months.

Nothing like terrible mind you, but there are strong questions about interest rates, demand destruction vs inflation, low unemployment (right now anyway), but slowing growth, etc. etc.




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