Zeihan is similar to Taleb in that both have an interesting idea worth reading about, but then proceed to write a bunch of nonfiction paperbacks you might see being sold at the Hudson News at the airport. No shame in them making some money selling paperbacks at volume but take the details with a grain of salt.
Zeihan uses geography and demographics to make some solid observations, but then proceeds to project far into the future. The world and human behavior is too complex to say anything that definitive based on just geography. I think Zeihan is best used as someone who has a paradigm worth adding to your tool belt but maybe not listening to his predictions verbatim.
To use an example you mentioned, rare earth mining. There are other nations with rare earth lodes and China has passed its peak of the market share of rare earth production.
One trick when evaluating a claim is to consider how markets will respond and whether that incentive can be picked up by another nation.
Another reality is that random extreme effects change the course of history all the time and many can’t really be predicted by geography. One of Zeihan’s big predictions is that the US will return to isolationism and European unity will weaken. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has seemingly shocked both trends backwards. Is that a temporary shock or part of a bigger trend? I would be hard pressed to predict either way.
Zeihan uses geography and demographics to make some solid observations, but then proceeds to project far into the future. The world and human behavior is too complex to say anything that definitive based on just geography. I think Zeihan is best used as someone who has a paradigm worth adding to your tool belt but maybe not listening to his predictions verbatim.
To use an example you mentioned, rare earth mining. There are other nations with rare earth lodes and China has passed its peak of the market share of rare earth production.
One trick when evaluating a claim is to consider how markets will respond and whether that incentive can be picked up by another nation.
Another reality is that random extreme effects change the course of history all the time and many can’t really be predicted by geography. One of Zeihan’s big predictions is that the US will return to isolationism and European unity will weaken. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has seemingly shocked both trends backwards. Is that a temporary shock or part of a bigger trend? I would be hard pressed to predict either way.