tariffs/sanctions are meant to be long term, 15-30 years before showing effectiveness. they are meant to not stop progress but stop 'compounding' progress. if they show effectiveness sooner even better! but effects are better seen after 10 years.
if A has $500 and B has $500 (and each put money away at the end of the year), tariffs on A are meant to 'eliminate' the compounding interest of the market. so over long horizons B ends up ahead. A still makes progress (but substantially further behind from where it could have been).
my example is more true of sanctions than tariffs. i've noticed many misguided tariffs from countries with less noble aims recently.
That's laughable, China will spend 15-30 expanding on all kinds of technologies while cut from the US by design. I cannot see any long term benefit for the US when it lost access to the largest foreign market and suffers from fierce competition across the world. See the debacle of EV, where Chinese companies are already dominating sales on 3rd world countries and inside China.
if China invades Taiwan (Xi explicitly says he plans too) I don't think anyone will want to buy from China.
the US chip sanctions are viewed happily by the entire industry - except China. This means other countries have a chance to further displace China in the sector. Not agreeing with a certain sanction is fine but my point stands: they are meant to hobble countries long term.
The only country that is hobbled by these sanctions is the US. China will not invade Taiwan because they don't need it, and even if they do nobody will stop buying from them for this reason, since Taiwan is considered to be part of the China by most of the world (even formally by the US). It is funny that the US continues to deceive itself on this issue.
if A has $500 and B has $500 (and each put money away at the end of the year), tariffs on A are meant to 'eliminate' the compounding interest of the market. so over long horizons B ends up ahead. A still makes progress (but substantially further behind from where it could have been).
my example is more true of sanctions than tariffs. i've noticed many misguided tariffs from countries with less noble aims recently.