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> ... giving Trump leverage in a trade negotiation.

That is a perfectly valid hypothesis. In the EU there are also doubts as to what Trump's actual goals are. People are preparing for the scenario that first Biden and now Trump are driving a wedge between the EU and China, whereupon Trump will suddenly change course and be China's best friend. (The unspoken second thesis is that the same scheme applies to Russia):

https://www.politico.eu/article/fear-and-loathing-in-davos-e...

"There’s another scenario that has the Europeans worried: After getting a reluctant EU onside with his anti-Beijing agenda, the famously fickle Trump could U-turn and end up ganging up on the bloc with his “very, very good friend” Xi Jinping, China’s president."

"There’s precedent for that: In 2020, after years of escalating hostility during Trump’s first term in office, Washington and Beijing struck a mini trade deal aiming to increase U.S. exports to China and to ease their trade war."

"Now, Trump has billionaire China dove Elon Musk in his ear — and he needs Washington to retain good ties with Beijing to keep his electric vehicle company Tesla afloat."



My point is nobody at the CIA is winning a promotion for helping on a trade negotiation like this. It's unlikely this was politically motivated in substance. (Timing may be.)


I'm not sure what they would be doing with their time if they didn't have the substance and multiple reports of various quality for such a hypothesis.


Trump is trying to bully everyone into submission and when that fails, hit them with tariffs and sanctions. It's what he did during his first mandate when he invited his "very good friend" Xi at his Mar-a-Lago estate. When a deal regarding the DPRK nuclear prigram failed to materialize he began threatening China with tariffs. I don't see any reason why it would be different now, only more "ambitious".

The EU should have its own China policy irrespective of the Trump Administration's.




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