AI more of a force muliplier than a replacement. If you rated programmers from 0 to 100. AI can take you from 0 to 80, but can't take you from 98 to 99.
I'd love to record these AI CEOs statements about what's going to happen in the next 24 months and look back at that time -- see how "transformed" the world is then.
My guess is more if the same (i.e. mostly crap), but faster.
We still create software largely the same as we did in the 1980s. Developers sitting at keyboards writing code, line by line. This despite decades of research and countless attempts at "expert systems", "software through pictures" and endless attempts at generating code from various types of models or flowcharts or with different development methodologies or management.
LLMs are like scaffolding on steroids, but aren't fundamentally transforming the process. Developers still need the mental model of what they are building and need to be able to verify that they have actually built it.
> We still create software largely the same as we did in the 1980s. Developers sitting at keyboards writing code, line by line.
That's because the single dimension of code fits how the computer works and we can project any higher order dimension on it. If you go with 2 dimensions like pictures, it no longer fits the computer model, and everything becomes awkward with the higher dimensions of the domain. The only good 2d representation is the grid (spreadsheet, relation dbs, parallel programming..) and even they can be unwieldy.
The mental model is the higher dimension structure, that we project on line of codes. Having LLM generating it is like throwing painting on canvas and hoping for the Mona Lisa.
I'd love to record these AI CEOs statements about what's going to happen in the next 24 months and look back at that time -- see how "transformed" the world is then.