> it's not all that LLMs increase experienced developers productivity (even when they believe that it does):

In the present, I am struggling to parse this. When I made my original comment, I understood you to be saying that LLMs do not increase productivity. Synthesizing what you're saying now with that, if I had read

> it's not at all clear that LLMs increase

then I would have understood you correctly. That's my bad!

> The only extrapolations I've seen on this thread are people shrugging it as using 6 months old LLMs so this whole paper must be invalid today.

I feel for both sides on this one. I do think that, for me personally, the models they used weren't good, but the ones that exist now are. So I do think there's some issue there. However, I don't think that makes the study invalid, if anything, it's a great way to test this hypothesis: if they do the same thing again, but with newer models, that would lend some weight to that idea. So I also think saying that this is completely irrelevant is missing the point.