> If you predicted next week's lottery numbers, I'd be very suspicious if you didn't buy a ticket
But that is not what is happening here, is it?
If you were able to predict a lotto number that has a high probability of appearing within the next 24 months, but each ticket cost $2000 to buy, would you still be suspicious?
I find that the people of the opinion "If you think this is a bubble, why aren't you shorting it" don't really have much of a grounding in statistics, especially with regard to EV.
I also find it odd that so many people saying "Why don't you short it" have never heard "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
