I always have a skepticism with this... in my extended Facebook network (so acquaintances from work, the fire departments I used to be with)... there's a lot of people who identify as "libertarian" or "independent". You'd think that averaged out, their beliefs should align reasonably equally between conservative and liberal and those parties (either issue to issue or overarching).
No. They are almost always fairly tightly and heavily lockstep aligned with the Republican party.
My fiance has a few friends in the dating scene. Their comments mirror this: "If someone has "apolitical/I'm not into politics/centerist" on their profile you can generally assume they are quite conservative.
> No. They are almost always fairly tightly and heavily lockstep aligned with the Republican party.
We're commenting on a pool that shows the % of independents growing and now at all time high. If you were right, these new independents would come from the Democratic side, essentially moving to the conservative side in order to maintain the lockstep leanings... but that doesn't make sense given the recent events.
Moreover, instead of biased speculation and hating on everyone who isn't in a total lockstep with our hating, we can look at the real data:
At the moment, the share of Democratic-leaning independents is higher than the Republican-leaning ones and that share grew since last year [1] - very understandable because we have two parties who always promise but never deliver, so round and round we (independents) go.
The extremist nature of both parties - "you're either with us or against us" - is the fundamental reason why more and more people don't want to associate with either of them.
[1] Poll: Nearly half of Americans identify as politically independent
I don't think it's that independents in general are embarrassed republicans, but that independents who constantly talk about being independents are embarrassed republicans. I know some independents who are to the left of democrats on most things (Sanders types), for example.
My experience matches pretty closely with FireBeyond's.
But I also think its worth noting that there's a difference between the group of people who are legitimately not political (don't really think or talk about politics) and the group of people who proactively identifies themselves as "independent" or "apolitical" when not specifically asked.
It is the latter group of people who (in my experience also) are very likely to be conservative.
Independents almost by definition have less trust in institutions, and that includes voting. They're also quite unpredictable in what issues they'll find salient. For example, I suspect that in 2026, there will be a lot of independents who are directionally aligned with Trump on immigration, DEI, etc., but who will vote Democrat because Trump hasn't brought down grocery store prices like he promised.
My experience aligns strongly with yours (self-declared 'independents' being almost universally conservative leaning) but anecdotally I also think a significant part of the growing number of people who identify as "independents" recently may be left leaning folks who are simply fed up with Democratic party leadership (or lack thereof) and the inability of the party to act as a true opposition party as our democracy falls apart.
I think you're correct that independents are broadly non-liberal, but I don't think it's accurate to say that they're in "lockstep" with anyone. Largely because the modern GOP is quite factionalized: https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjso..... See Figure 2.
Independents clearly are aligned with Trump on many issues. For example, 63% support eliminating racial preferences in hiring and awarding government contracts, 65% favor closing the border, and 63% align with Trump on various gender-identity issues.
On the other hand, independents also in-conflict with the establishment GOP on a number of other issues. 86% favor measures to lower Medicare drug prices, while only 36% support adding work requirements to Medicaid. (Harvard-Harris doesn't poll on abortion, but independents tend to be genuinely between the parties on that issue.)
I think in the social circles of people who are still dating, whether someone is liberal or conservative is defined in terms of views on immigration or gender, rather than medicaid work requirements. So independents present as overwhelmingly conservative in that context. But that doesn't mean that independents are "lockstep aligned with the Republican Party" on tax cuts or other issues like that.
> there's a lot of people who identify as "libertarian" or "independent". You'd think that averaged out, their beliefs should align reasonably equally between conservative and liberal and those parties (either issue to issue or overarching).
According to the article, 27% of independents describe themselves as conservative (not to mention the 20% of Republicans who describe themselves as moderate). Also, the article talks about the "Republican-leaning independents" category, so I'm not sure about the basis for skepticism here.
You're noting how they describe themselves, but my experience has been the same as the parent comment, that "independent" always means conservative/Republican but not wanting to call themselves that.
> my experience has been the same as the parent comment, that "independent" always means conservative/Republican but not wanting to call themselves that.
Nobody is denying the existence of this phenomenon. And there's perhaps good reason for people to eschew identification with political parties, which are corrupt in various ways, though one may hold one's nose and vote for some major party candidate on election day.
I dispute the "always" claim, however, which appears to be based on your own anecdotal experience. I would trust Gallup polling more than that. Moreover, the existence of the Green party for example would appear to be proof that independent does not equate with conservative/Republican. The Libertarian party of course gets votes too.
No. They are almost always fairly tightly and heavily lockstep aligned with the Republican party.
My fiance has a few friends in the dating scene. Their comments mirror this: "If someone has "apolitical/I'm not into politics/centerist" on their profile you can generally assume they are quite conservative.