It's virtually free to export software to Earth while it would cost millions to export anything physical.
Also, I think you misunderstood me. Its not supposed to cover some cost; the presumed developer chose to go to Mars rather than stay on Earth and buy a house. He pays for the privilege of living on Mars.
It's not that Mars is spectacular for building software but rather that's a very cost effective export once you're there.
> It's even freer to leave the programmer here and not have to export at all....
I don't get it. At all. Let's use me as an example: I'm currently in my 20s, a software developer with his mind and heart set on Mars. I'm Elon's target market, basically. So let's say I spend my money to go to Mars and fulfill my life's dreams and goals. You're suggesting that I shouldn't go, because 'git push' and 'git pull' are more expensive? Hah. Ridiculous!
> There's no way a guy on Mars could compete on costs. I think you're also underestimating how much of a premium bandwidth will be too.
No, I don't think so. Latency is very high, but data rate isn't going to be all that bad - in fact, it might be spectacular as the medium of transit is the near-vacuum of space. Though I agree to a certain extent that costs will generally be higher when building software for Earth.
But slow down here, because this was just one example of a segment of a potential Martian economy. We clearly are not going to predict all the details this far out, and we're already debating about the data transmission costs. I think the point here is to take a step back and realize that Martians would certainly have a lot to do, would have their own small (though growing) economy, and that exports to Earth will likely be mostly digital due to shipping costs for physical objects.
You need to calm the fuck down mate, I'm not telling you you can't do anything...
I'm saying that production of anything for export is probably not going to be a priority, for a long long time. Generations at the very least.
Also, from the way you've blown up here, going off on someone just for throwing out a few doubts, are you absolutely sure you have the right temperament to be locked in a tiny box with other people for a 6 month journey... or possibly the rest of your life? Crikey.
I don't see why you're telling me to calm "the fuck" down, after I already said we should slow down the debate. Your swearing at me is unnecessary.
As far as production for export not happening for generations: well, I disagree and I think that's completely crazy. I only brought it up as an example that the people living there will not be jobless. I didn't intend on starting some giant export debate, as clearly nobody here has any real idea to what extent there will be exports from Mars within the next 30 years.
But yeah, keep insulting me, that'll help this discussion.
Edit: If I sounded offended, I partially am. The suggestion that I should stay on Earth because it's cheaper is perhaps the most offensive thing anyone's said to me in a while.
The calm down comment was referring to your other post, the WE DON'T CARE one.
I'm not telling you you can't, or shouldn't. You want to go to Mars? That's a fucking great aspiration.
I'm just saying I don't think software is going to be a major export. Or anything really... unless they find something valuable that's uniquely Martian.
Stop being offended by people disagreeing with you.
You were trying to tell HN that basements are better for us nerds than Mars. That's absurd and I will not just chill back and let that attitude prevail, as it undermines my very existence. It's insulting and it's offensive. Not only that, but it undermines the whole human enterprise of exploration of the unknown.
I completely agree with you that software will not be a major export. Nothing will be a major export. But that's completely irrelevant to everything I've said; I'm a programmer, and I will be able to afford a $500,000 house or a trip to Mars in my mid-40s. If I go, I will be unlikely to work a job purely Mars-based, and it makes sense that I would continue with my work as I do here on Earth: writing software.
Your suggestions that Earth basements are better for that life is...well, I don't really have words for how offensive that is. I'm not offended by your disagreement with me, I'm offended at your attitude that nerds should stay in Earth basements and not go to amazing places like Mars.
The remainder of the voyage to Mars was quiet aboard the USS HNterprise after Captain Graham threatened to "turn this rocket ship around if you two don't stop fighting".
> as clearly nobody here has any real idea to what extent there will be exports from Mars within the next 30 years.
Conditional on there being a Mars colony in 30 years, then there will almost certainly be mineral and food exports from Mars to the rest of the solar system other than Earth in another 10.
You know that Mars atmosphere don't capture oxygen right? [1]
No way to grow food there unless you export a whole lot of greenhouses and set up an artificial biosphere, but without the conditions that we take for granted on earth.
This is already hard to do in deserts or in the Polar regions, where we have plenty of oxygen and free moisture flowing in the atmosphere.
It's not, but a huge pressurized dome would be pretty much expensive, I do not think a colony on Mars would be able to produce more than subsistence level for the pioneers.
There has already been consideration of producing polymers on Mars from the atmosphere. Agricultural domes would not have to be reliable as living spaces, so these could be built cheaply as inflatable structures. So mars could build its own greenhouses.
> It's virtually free to export software to Earth while it would cost millions to export anything physical.
I don't think this will remain true. We have materials today that are strong enough to build space elevators on Mars. Heck, there are mountains on Mars that poke up above its atmosphere. We could just build linear accelerators on top of those and voila, we're free of the rocket equation when exporting to Earth and the rest of the solar system.
Also, I think you misunderstood me. Its not supposed to cover some cost; the presumed developer chose to go to Mars rather than stay on Earth and buy a house. He pays for the privilege of living on Mars.
It's not that Mars is spectacular for building software but rather that's a very cost effective export once you're there.