I would also like to postulate the element of surprise. Sauron would never expect a weak, feeble creature like a Hobbit to be an adversary. But mostly I agree with your points.
Yes he did. Gollum told him so. That's how Sauron knew to look for the Ring in the Shire. After the Shire, almost all of Sauron's forces knew to look for Hobbits and to take them alive for questioning.