I don't know, I see people beginning to use linux in my social circle, even non-technical users. Would have been unthinkable a couple of years ago. Nothing scientific here but I get the definite impression linux is gaining momentum.

MacOSX user here btw, not a desktop linux zealot at all, just reporting what I see anecdotally.

The best thing MS could do for linux is perfect its anti-piracy strategy. If it was impossible to pirate Windows, Linux would explode I reckon.