I think you are right that the apps that "win big" are going to be the volume free apps. That being said, people are still spending a lot of money those games, it's just not up front.

Also, as an indie, I'm honestly not aiming for Candy Crush success. It might be possible to get in that vicinity like Tiny Wings, but it seems absurdly unlikely. I'm perfectly content to make a good living selling niche apps, and there is a big market available for it. Candy Crush and Clash of Clans aren't making all 5 billion Apple paid out last year.