Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

I would assume this headline is "of all companies for which founding papers are filed in America". That seems a poor statistic to use when 65% of Americans try to start a business at some point.

A more meaningful number might be % chance among companies who received venture funding. A funding event represents a concrete shift in probability of success.

Does anyone commenting here know the probability of, say, a $10M, $100M, and $1B exit after a Silicon Valley funding event (funding from recognized VC)?



13% of VC-backed startups exit for over $10M, 5% exit for over $50M, and 2% exit for over $100M, although there are many different studies with slightly different numbers:

http://www.quora.com/What-is-the-truth-behind-9-out-of-10-st...


Those numbers are all surprisingly high


They probably look less high if you compare them with the percentage of VC-backed companies valued at $10M, $50M and $100M in their last round of funding...


Couldn't agree more. Another factor that popped into my head: how many people start businesses with billion dollar aspirations? If you open a bike store, restaurant or mom-and0pop shop, chances are you aren't even trying to turn them into billion dollar companies.


Also notable that 57% of US businesses are freelance/consulting. (Aka one owner and no employees)


I think a bayesian approach is more suitable:

P($1B company | you're in SV, $100MM in funding, etc)

Think about a bayesian network and its joint probability.




Consider applying for YC's Summer 2026 batch! Applications are open till May 4

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: