Would you buy an eight year used Tesla for 30k? I'm a fan of Tesla and hope to be an owner some day, but I think the author is being overly optimistic here.
Well we know that Elon Musk has promised a buyback guarantee, indexed to the buyback cost of a similarly old Mercedes S class[1]. So that sets a floor on the depreciation value.
Also, as btian notes below, the electric drivetrain is also much simpler than a gasoline one, so it should be in much better shape relative to non-electric cars. I'm relatively optimistic because the part that depreciates the most is the battery: and if the rest of the car holds up well, then switching the battery at a lower cost (taking into account 8 years of battery tech advancement) should make for a pretty high resale value.
Electric motor fail on average on par with similarly serviced gas engines.
Failure of motor bearings is usually the result of improper mechanical installation causing undesirable forces acting on the bearings, or simply poor maintenance. Bearings should be inspected regularly for lubrication and uncharacteristic noises. Their life expectancy depends on factors previously cited. Most motor vendors typically recommend bearing replacement every two years, which I think will put a cramp in the Tesla maintenance scheme
What really is off-putting is that even if the car is well maintained and even parked. It will brick as from the degradation of the batteries. At some point the owner will have to invest in a new power pack. Not true of gas motors. I have a 66' galaxie in my driveway with its original motor its never had more than an oil and spark plug change and it has a life of nearly 50 years. I'd have bought at least 3 tesla power packs in the same time frame, even if the car just sat there.
How much does a new electric motor for a Tesla cost versus a new gas motor for a similar car? I'd guess it would be significantly cheaper, but I certainly could be wrong. I don't know that much about cars.
Downvoted an honest question stated in a reasonable manner? Come on.
a 2006 base model Mercedes S class in 'very good' condition, with a hundred thousand miles on it, is like twelve grand, private-party value. (interestingly, a 2004 car is around six grand, both according to KBB)
I find it... unlikely that you will be able to sell a 2014 Tesla model S for $30K in 2022.
I live in London and this is an issue that a lot of potential EV owners.
Having seen how the councils have added "club car" spaces for car rental schemes I could see them adding charge parking spaces, potentially with free electricity.
Hopefully this will be a non issue in a few years.
I live in Amsterdam, we have Electric Charge parking spots all over the city, but I believe you have to subscribe to something to use them and they probably only make up 1 in 20 spaces (which are already in very high demand in this city) so you probably also need a parking permit for the area as well.
Less dense increased the chances of off street parking doesn't it?
Also I don't see how the size of a parking lot changes things, if anything it means you could incentivise by having the EV slots closer to the attraction, plus have solar roofs to harness some cheap power.
This is definitely an important factor in the model. The frame of mind I tried to use is, what would I pay today, in 2014, for a luxury car of Tesla caliber that is, say, Model Year 2006?
Then I took a few other things into account:
- Quantitatively, given the paucity of data on Model S resales (I've looked at this and I think prices are high because supply is low), what does depreciation history on the Roadster imply for the Model S looking forward?
- Qualitatively, what is the impact of a battery swap say 8 or 10 years down the line, if the cost of the battery is approximately $12K (based on Tesla's earlier comments and the Roadster battery swap program) or less (if the Gigafactory succeeds)?
I put the info on the depreciation worksheet. I used a range of 11.5-13% per annum based on observed values for the Roadster, and to be conservative, used 13%.
I might if we knew how long battery packs lasted and it was available now and not 7+ years from now when there'll be better cheaper options. So, I guess I agree. Optimistic.
Tesla has promised the ability to swap out battery packs in the future. So, after 8 years the Model S should hold very good resale value because at that time you could probably swap in a 120+kwh battery (that goes 400+ miles). 30k residual value after 8 years on a well-options S 85kwh sounds about right IMO.
10 year old Tesla will be considered an ancient, inefficient design nobody will want to buy. Cool factor will be long gone. There will be much better cars and prices will be significantly lower than Tesla's today.
Not necessarily true. However the bigger concern is technology. The tech behind the batteries in a current generation Tesla will be probably one or two generations removed. Meaning, your going to get soaked on first generation buys.
Now Tesla does have swappable packs but the unknown is, how much will a replacement pack of second or third generation cost and will you be able to install it in the first generation car; I will assume you can.
The Tesla lower depreciation is factor of limited supply and the author is taking a mighty big bet that demand will remain as high as it is. Given Tesla's stated goals for manufacture and the models coming this is not a good bet.
Toss in that California may cap tax incentives to EVs costing 60k or less; I would push that to 40K or less. The rich should never have been given help to buy a car in a price range they already purchase in. This car certainly did not need the incentive.
You're not understanding the point of the rebate. Part of the purpose of the rebate is to finance car companies selling viable electric cars so that they can later on down the road make more affordable cars.
You mean like the stations that A Better Place was going to build but never did?
Or the ones where Tesla purposes to charge you $100 to swap it out?
The infrastructure doesn't exist and building a "swap garage" is just a pipe dream unless it can service a large market... so having a propriety battery system doesn't lend itself to that...
Better Place built quite a few battery swap locations, but due to their limited market (~1000 cars, compared more than 23,000 cars for Tesla already) they obviously failed.
The Tesla battery swaps are listed at between $60 and $80 which for a similar sedan (size, engine power, etc) is about the same as a full tank of gas.
The cost and serviceability of electric motors vs internal combustion engines reeks of BS and until you provide actual sources most of your arguments will have lost all credibility in my eyes.
