IMHO, Prediction of software sustenance depends primarily on following points:
a) Current Usage
b) Current set of users
c) Availability of internet
d) Kind of exposure to apps
Current Usage:
Current desktop apps are used by the majority for purposes such as documents, presentation, image modification, watching videos. If these purposes are served in fullest and flexible enough to adopt, then web apps will start dominating.
Current set of users:
By numbers, if we go, majority of current set of users for desktop apps will fall in the category who might not be aware of a browser turning to be a replacement for all their needs. It will take 5 years for web apps to expand and become popular enough and reach out to this majority for extinction of desktop apps.
Availability of internet:
Currently desktop apps are predominantly used for offline purpose, since connection to internet is not required. And places where there is no connectivity to internet is present, still desktop apps would survive. But web apps requiring internet connectivity at all times for each request-response will not be able to reach out to places where there is lack of internet connection. Web apps will need to provide a offline environment similar to desktop apps, then web apps would dominate. Otherwise, if internet connection is provided to everyone like how sun provides light to every corner of the planet, then web apps would burn down desktop apps.
Kind of exposure to apps:
Currently, majority of users tend to sit in a cubicle and perform work, which is more related to desktop apps. If majority of users tend to become more mobile, for example, all the personal PC boxes become tablet/iPads/smartPhones then web apps (mobile apps) would need to replace desktop apps.
Current Usage: Current desktop apps are used by the majority for purposes such as documents, presentation, image modification, watching videos. If these purposes are served in fullest and flexible enough to adopt, then web apps will start dominating.
Current set of users: By numbers, if we go, majority of current set of users for desktop apps will fall in the category who might not be aware of a browser turning to be a replacement for all their needs. It will take 5 years for web apps to expand and become popular enough and reach out to this majority for extinction of desktop apps.
Availability of internet: Currently desktop apps are predominantly used for offline purpose, since connection to internet is not required. And places where there is no connectivity to internet is present, still desktop apps would survive. But web apps requiring internet connectivity at all times for each request-response will not be able to reach out to places where there is lack of internet connection. Web apps will need to provide a offline environment similar to desktop apps, then web apps would dominate. Otherwise, if internet connection is provided to everyone like how sun provides light to every corner of the planet, then web apps would burn down desktop apps.
Kind of exposure to apps: Currently, majority of users tend to sit in a cubicle and perform work, which is more related to desktop apps. If majority of users tend to become more mobile, for example, all the personal PC boxes become tablet/iPads/smartPhones then web apps (mobile apps) would need to replace desktop apps.