It's bullshit, of course. We exceeded "natural" food production capacity (if you take agriculture to be "unnatural") a long time ago.
The only hard limits on food production are the amount of energy and carbon/nitrogen/oxygen/etc. we can get our hands on. We are nowhere near these limits. We still have plenty of room for growth left with current popular agricultural technology. If that is exhausted, we have plenty of room for growth through hydroponics, GM, etc.
Yes, the real limit on food production is profitability. Plenty of America's arable land lies fallow or has condos built atop it.
I will say however that it seems some of our large food supply sources may be in danger and the economic and human cost of pivoting a food supply chain will be astronomical.
a very large portion of America's arable land is the property of the government, mostly Federal. I doubt there is little difference in many Western countries.
The limit seems to be the extent at which governments will continue to pay for excess food production. The limit of feeding who is on this planet is purely political, political in that certain nations are ruled by despots who care not for their people and political for the lack of political will for those other nations who will not act to correct it.
The condo comment was kind of a joke. It's a Montanan joke so I probably should've gauged my audience better.
My main point, which seems to have been lost here is that the main impediment to increased food production is economic. Whether the economic pressures creating the situation are born out of greed, over-regulation or something else I didn't speculate.
The land is there. The water is there. The equipment is procurable as well as the labor. It's a simple factor of motivation. Our semi-free market produces the current amount of food. A more free market would likely (but may not) produce less. A more regulated market could (but may not) produce more.
I look forward to a time when micro-machines (chips?) produce proteins, carbohydrates etc from raw materials (air?) Then energy, water and food become one fungible thing.
Imagine cutting out the whole supply chain for staples (farming, machinery production, transportation, middlemen, processing, distribution and sales) and turning it into a machine on your kitchen counter that emits rice. Changes the whole game.
I didn't understand that it was a joke. There are real people who are concerned we are paving the whole world though, which is a misunderstanding that I like to push back against.
There is plenty of water. Fresh water near farmland is the problem. This is fixable by a relatively straightforward application of infrastructure and energy consumption (desalinization and pumping. Hydroponics may be preferable over pumping long distances, but it's still fundamentally an infrastructure and energy problem.)
The only hard limits on food production are the amount of energy and carbon/nitrogen/oxygen/etc. we can get our hands on. We are nowhere near these limits. We still have plenty of room for growth left with current popular agricultural technology. If that is exhausted, we have plenty of room for growth through hydroponics, GM, etc.