Nice to see someone still reading this. I again agree with almost everything you're saying here. Plenty of companies flourish in difficult climates, but the margin for error is much greater in a rising or static market. In a falling market there's just less room for failure (like there is for most things). Put another way, in reference to my previous comment, I'd be more comfortable betting that this new, more efficient residential real estate market will emerge sooner if there is not a housing bubble (or rather a bubble that bursts).
it seems we nearly agree 100%. the comment about a crash/recession was because it seemed like you were interested in joining the company but were concerned about the repercussions of a bubble.
if you have coffee with the founder, instead of focusing on macro risks, perhaps focus on OD's models for risk, inventory, and cash flow. because they can cherry pick geographies, it's actually easier for them to grow now during a recession than when they're much larger and need more transactions to move the needle.
if you believe the models are sound, then focus on whether you believe the team can adhere to these models, that is whether they can resist the temptation to grow at all costs -- and thus place riskier bets.
we also agree OD could stop short of a marketplace and remain an attractive company. we only diverge on their marketplace ambitions.
