it seems we nearly agree 100%. the comment about a crash/recession was because it seemed like you were interested in joining the company but were concerned about the repercussions of a bubble.
if you have coffee with the founder, instead of focusing on macro risks, perhaps focus on OD's models for risk, inventory, and cash flow. because they can cherry pick geographies, it's actually easier for them to grow now during a recession than when they're much larger and need more transactions to move the needle.
if you believe the models are sound, then focus on whether you believe the team can adhere to these models, that is whether they can resist the temptation to grow at all costs -- and thus place riskier bets.
we also agree OD could stop short of a marketplace and remain an attractive company. we only diverge on their marketplace ambitions.
if you have coffee with the founder, instead of focusing on macro risks, perhaps focus on OD's models for risk, inventory, and cash flow. because they can cherry pick geographies, it's actually easier for them to grow now during a recession than when they're much larger and need more transactions to move the needle.
if you believe the models are sound, then focus on whether you believe the team can adhere to these models, that is whether they can resist the temptation to grow at all costs -- and thus place riskier bets.
we also agree OD could stop short of a marketplace and remain an attractive company. we only diverge on their marketplace ambitions.