And this is despite all the options of electric cars on the market failing to live up to the average Norwegian's criteria.
Many Norwegians are still waiting for a "real" electric car to become available. Where a real car is defined by:
- Tesla range
- 450 liter+ luggage room
- Roof rack/box
- Tow bar
In particular with Tesla you get EITHER the tow bar (model X) OR the roof box (Model S). So even IF you splurge on a luxury priced car, it feels like compromising vs getting a gasoline car.
(Also Tesla is "very large", it does not fit comfortably in parking spaces; 180 cm wide cars are really a lot more convenient than 200 cm around here).
The moment anyone is ready to just deliver something like an electric Volkswagen Passat station wagon they will sell as many as they want in Norway. But, every single announcement fails to meet these criteria. It is a standard that lots and lots of gasoline cars fullfill, but currently no EVs. (Audi e-Tron is first, but still has a too large footprint, and also too expensive for most).
VW is working hard to deliver mass produced Passat-like EVs in 2020. They will be priced the same as their current fossil cars, which gives the new electric lineup a huge advantage in Norway due to high taxes on fossil cars. More info here: http://www.fullychargedshow.co.uk/electric-cars/2018/12/17/v...
Norway is one of the world's largest per capita producers of greenhouse gases. Norway adds 1.6 million barrels of oil per day to the world's market. Buying EVs might make people feel virtuous, but it makes no real difference compared to the enormous fossil fuel output.
It's not that much different than blaming the sellers of military equipment for the atrocities committed by that military equipment. If County A sells bombs to County B knowing that Country B will use them to commit genocide in Country C, County A can't be entirely off the hook for that genocide. Sure if Country A didn't sell then another country would, and sure no one forced Country B to buy those weapons, but Country A still knew what the outcome was going to be when they made the sale. And Country A decided that the money was worth the ethical consequences.
If you produce and sell oil, even if you don't use the oil yourself, you know full well what that oil will be used for.
I largely agree with you, but you have to consider the flip side: if Norway won't supply oil, countries won't just switch to green alternatives. They will be forced to go elsewhere because there just aren't any viable alternatives at the scale of global transportation. Whether they go to dirtier fuels, go to more dangerous regimes for their oil, or just straight up go to war, it's a big risk for the entire world. We've only recently found out from Kido Koichi's diary that oil was one of the primary reasons Japan began to encroach outward and the oil embargo was the reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.
I'll admit that argument doesn't sit right with me on a personal level, but on the scale of geopolitics the stakes are just that high. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, died last time the US cut off oil supplies to a major country.
Purely regarding the market dynamics: one supplier exiting means immediately higher prices. Even if everyone finds an alternative from a vendor with less scruples, it will be more expensive and therefore incentivise investment in alternatives across the board.
Fair is fair: This argument works better for sane markets than for tortured oligopolies like oil. But, at its core, morally if nothing else, this is the principle. And this is why that “if I don’t do it someone else will” argument never is a strong one.
Norway can’t hide their oily fingerprints in green washed gloves.
But if Country A doesn't supply weapons to Country B, someone else will. Maybe someone who will sell them a nuke. Or chemical weapons. Or maybe Country B goes to their last resort and builds a dirty bomb to fight Country C instead of civilized bombs and tanks.
There's a game theory discussion to be had about negotiating with terrorists, but at the end of the day that oil is still getting burned and the damage is still being done.
Governments don't have an urgent pressing need to purchase the shiniest new weapons though, the comparison isn't valid.
They do urgently need oil to stay in power, plenty have been thrown out over far less.
If hypothetically the world's biggest oil exporters stopped overnight there'd be widespread geopolitical instability/war within a month after reserves are gone.
If one single word from an overly-obvious analogy is your main take-away from what I wrote, I would encourage you to just move on. It's probably not worth your time.
> 180 cm wide cars are really a lot more convenient than 195 cm
I’ll add that I have a Prius Prime that I’m very happy with, and it’s only 175 cm wide. It’s an amazing and extremely nifty car. Compact car fans are sure to love it. Practically everything about it is praiseworthy (except for the Entune software).
There’s a new Prius e-AWD [1] that should be good for driving in snowy conditions.
That being said, I live in New York, and I’ve never had a problem here. The government does a pretty good job of salting the roads, and cleaning up excess snow, so I’ve practically never had to drive on snow, even during snowy times.
On de-icing: you can have clean road if they are heavy used together with a not so cold climate since car's itself contribute a bit on cleanup phase but you practically can't on any less frequented road, especially outside cities.
Salt and gravel help avoiding ice with a "liquid top" that's super slippery but can't really melt snow on snowy days or cold days...
So they are winter tires, only spiked tires works (really) well on ice, unfortunately you can't use them on most country without majority of the roads iced for long periods...
Personally living, and have lived, in snowy area while I prize winter tire on snow I also prize 4WD/AWD, without them in many cases I'll have had to beg for a tow, no matter how good winter tire I can ever mount.
In some condition, like little snow, you only have slippery roads due to the moisture of salt/snow/dirt on the road and 4wheel help reaming on trajectory but you may still drive on 2WD at least if you are a good enough driver, on heavier snow 4wheels means have enough traction to advance and enough grip to still have traction when some wheel slip.
I grew up living on the side of a mountain in Montana. 1000 foot climb from the highway to home. Could not make it home in winter with snow tires and 2WD, period. You'd end up fish tailing and generally turning a snow packed road into a gleaming sheet of ice. Which, makes it worse for those with 4WD as now the snow pack is a polished sheet of ice.
4WD helped, but was also not always sufficient. I've had a 4WD SUV slide directly sideways after coming to a compmete stop on an incline. Some of the grades were up to 14%, not highway quality, but private road.
Only relatively assured way to get home was 4WD, snow tires and chains. And you could skip the snow tires if you had the chains.
I have a Volvo XC70. The transfer case broke and the AWD vehicle became FWD and it went from being pretty good in slippery conditions to awful. I couldn't get up hills on streets etc. same snow tires before and after the tcase broke. Maybe just that vehicle has more weight on the rear tires but the front tires sure couldn't pull that car up the hill to get me home if it was a slippery day.
Nonsense. I have just had my Tesla S 70D serviced, they loaned me a S P85 rear wheel drive. It was horrible. Just manoeuvring in a car park was difficult because the car couldn't grip the ice. Got my 70D back today, what a relief! Sticks to the road like glue unless you push it foolishly hard. Both cars, of course, have winter tyres (stud-less).
As a New England resident with a very old detached garage, I, too, wish my Tesla was not so wide. Every single time I park in my garage (which can only be accomplished in reverse, while turning about 30°) it's mildly terrifying.
Third party roof rack and tow options are totally possible for pretty much most of the mainline EVs. I'm putting a roof rack on my Volt for a ski trip in two weeks. Towing hitch is discouraged by manufacturer, but many many people have done it.
But yes, luggage is a concern. Though my Volt mostly fits my needs given we have a second, ICE, hauling vehicle.
Not many options for Model X racks; kind of unsurprising given the door configuration. Though this nutter has his skis on there with a suction cup rack:
There are aftermarket hidden hitches for the Model S. I routinely pull a trailer with my S, sometimes up to the 2500lb hitch rating. It has served me better than my pickup truck I previously owned, and it only takes a moment to drop the trailer before Supercharging at stations where I can’t pull thru.
I just got a Model S actually, and am considering installing a hitch for carrying bikes. But I would NEVER pull a trailer..
What if I do, and my trailer collides with something/someone, and I become liable for millions in damages, not covered by my insurance...
At least in Norway, how large a trailer you can pull is regulated in the license of the car. For a Model S this number is 0 kg. And insurance covers what the license says.
(IANAL, but Norwegian Tesla forums seem to agree that hitches are for carrying bikes only around here, until Tesla is bothered to officially submit trailer crash tests or similar)
My apologies for Norway’s public policy stance on the situation (I’m in the US). I’m permitted to add a hitch, and my large national insurer has confirmed in writing I’m covered up to my policy limits with the vehicle modification.
That's an impressively terrible rating for something with the curb weight of a 90s 1/2 ton pickup. I suspect the vehicle could comfortably handle far more considering how much better the power and brakes are than a 90s pickup but they don't want to be replacing certain parts under warranty (my guess would be CVs since the S has plenty of torque and traction to hurt them with).
In almost a decade of owning a 1/2 ton pickup, only twice did I pull a load over that rating. No need to optimize for rare workloads. If I need to haul more than 2500 lbs, I’m renting a truck for the job.
The underlying issue is a lot of pickups are road queens and entirely unnecessary for their daily workloads, existing as status symbols first and a mode of transportation second.
Meh. Most people only ever use the front row of seating in their vehicle the overwhelming majority of the time. Pickups are just vehicles where the extra space is optimized for non-human cargo. The richer you are the more likely you are to buy enough vehicle for the most extreme case. If we all bought what we needed for the average case there would be a lot more subcompacts sold.
Right, which is why pickups should be taxed more than cars to internalize their externalities (lower fuel economy, more damage done to other vehicles in accidents). It’s not like it can’t be done (See: this article on Norway).
They are. Any gas tax is a tax on the fuel economy of the vehicle. If pickups get less MPG, they are taxed more on gas tax. Some US states base vehicle registration fees on the weight of the vehicle, which is another tax on heavier vehicles (like pickup trucks). More damage done in accidents is something the insurance companies would have to deal with, and if it's actually a problem you can guarantee those insurance companies have already factored it into the rates.
I regularly nearly exceed the load capacity of a 1/2 pickup. Some of them are road queens but some people actually use a truck for its intended purpose.
There's a lot more to towing than just the curb weight of the vehicle. For example SUVs with CVTs often have lower towing capacity than the same SUV with a normal automatic transmission even though they weigh the same.
There's a lot that goes into making a vehicle good for towing, and a luxury sedan is not normally expected to have a good towing capacity no matter how much it weighs.
Roof rack: Skis. (And the Model X ski box behind car on tow bar solution look unwieldy and ridiculous, but there are still lots of them around here, as the only EV compromise that sort of ticks all the boxes.)
And kayaks too.
Tow bar: Not sure what others do without them. Furniture shops lend out trailers for free so that you can take your new sofa with you back home. I recently transported the materials for building my new front deck on a trailer. I tend to rent a trailer for taking things to the landfill/recycling facilities especially when renovating my home (and Norwegians do a lot of home renovation..). When helping young people move a trailer is all it takes. Etc etc. I used a tow bar at least five times a year for misc errands. (Now I have a Model S and have to leech on neighbors)
I am not sure why this is different and how e.g. US or German or French culture would be digferent.. I guess the alternative is paying others for delivery/disposal, doing less handiwork oneself, and (in the case of US) buying pickup trucks that in no way will fit on Norwegian roads and parking lots.
Trailers are pretty much unheard of in the US. You either have or borrow a pickup truck instead, because everyone has one or knows someone that has one.
As a result, almost no cars in the US has a tow bar. Except pickup trucks. That don't really need them. Because you haul stuff directly in the truck.
The reason most US cars lack hitch receivers is liability. In most of Europe, it is expected you drive slower when towing a trailer. Not so in the US. Even the same models have different tow ratings (usually zero in the US) - see VW Sportwagon for example (rated to 3500lbs in most of EU, and not rated at all in US, despite being the exact same car).
You either have or borrow a pickup truck instead, because everyone has one or knows someone that has one.
In the OP's scenario, furniture, there are very few furniture stores in the United States that don't deliver. And if you happen to shop at one of those few, there are a number of ways to rent a truck for a day or by the hour: Home Depot, ZipCar, Enterprise, U-Haul, etc...
Unheard of ... unless you live in the midwest. Here in Minnesota, a ton of cars have them because a ton of people own boats and/or rv's and/or snow machines. The same reason a lot own all-wheel drive vehicles.
Is the range still a big deal? Norway is not as big as the USA, and you can nearly get from Oslo to Bergen in a Chevy Bolt. (Stockholm, I'll admit, is too far for one charge)
Electrical (battery based) car's are more a marketing thing that a real tech change. They simply can't for now substitute fossil-fuel car's.
Battery life is still a problem, most of the people have yet do discover due to the young age of ALL electric car's in actual market, inability to offer enough electricity to recharge them at scale is another problem most people still have to discover simply because we actually have very small percentage of EV around. And that's only to cite most important problems.
Of course I expect may downvote, without comment so I expect this comment fade quickly but since today's prize of EVs people that can actually buy them is supposed to been able to compute enough to choose and REAL EV sell confirm that. Despite all the marketing.
You’ll be downvoted because you are wrong. Because battery life isn’t an issue with thermally managed batteries, Teslas are doing well over 100,000 miles and on average retaining 80%-90% of battery life. And because electric cars will provide a massive pool for demand shifting, barring four hours of peak, electric cars can be charged at any time of day, that means with price structures you can create almost any demand curve you want.
I bet you do not know anyone with a moderately used EV with more than five years. If I'm right wait a bit before try so sure conclusion.
I know few people with few not-so-new EVs (Renault ZE series most of them) and hear their practical experience outside marketing. No one of them is willing to buy an EV again.
> I bet you do not know anyone with a moderately used EV with more than five years.
I have a Chevy Volt from 2013. Bought it used. It's now six years old and has nearly 60k miles on it -- 75% of those on EV-only miles. I have almost no decrease in range or capacity. (It was EPA rated to 35 miles range off the lot. I got a real world 30 miles range yesterday, in below-freezing weather with aggressive snow tires on it, in a Michigan winter. When the weather warms up, it will go right back to 35 miles, just like it did last summer).
I'm never buying a gasoline car ever again. I'll buy Volts until they can't be found, and then I'll probably switch to a Bolt or equivalent.
The trick is to buy a well-designed, thermally managed battery. If you are lazy about thermals, the battery will kill itself. (See the original Nissan Leafs, anything from Ford, etc). But that has nothing to do with EV battery tech viability, and everything to do with car companies being lazy or cheap.
A properly designed EV battery will easily last over 10 years and over 100,000 miles. We have lots of examples of this (from Tesla, Chevy, and others) to prove it.
> A properly designed EV battery will easily last over 10 years and over 100,000 miles
The probem for me is, that's on the young end of the sort of cars I'm interested in buying. The newest car I own is a 13 years old Honda that has 190,000 miles.
Well... If for you 30-35 miles are an acceptable range ok, for me it's far, far less then my need. And I talk about daily life, not counting holidays...
I have a Ford Fusion Energi plug-in. Force air cooled using the computer's choice of cabin air or outside air (no dedicated AC evaporator). Battery is at 72% capacity (5.5 total kwh of 7.6 when new) after 40k and 3.3 years. Usable capacity is at 65% (~3.7-3.9 kwh down from 5.7-5.9 new). I would never buy another plug-in or electric vehicle that doesn't have some form of active cooling powered by the air conditioning sytem. Liquid cooling without a chiller powered from the AC system is insufficient. At minimum, chilled air routed from a dedicated evaporator through the battery (older Escape hybrid, Outlander PHEV), and ideally, a liquid system with a heat exchanger to the AC system (Tesla, Volt, Bolt, Pacifica hybrid, maybe others?)
Anyway, with Michigan's $0.15/kwh electricity and a climate that's either way too hot or way too cold, the break-even point for electric vs. gas is about $1.90 a gallon ... so at least for now (with gas below the break-even point), it doesn't hurt so bad that the battery capacity is so low.
Wait: that's NOT an EV. That's an hybrid car that can run on electricity only for a very limited distance and limited speed. You basically do not use your battery, only move it around.
21 miles and up to 85mph when the battery is new (although at 85mph the range would be considerably less). Electric heat and a.c., electric transmission lubrication. Mechanically, its as much an ev as the volt, with about half the battery. Were it not for the cooling problem, it would be a fantastic car. So much bigger and more usable for a family than the volt (it has a real back seat, unlike the volt, and can be loaded up with lux stuff in the platinum trim, unlike the volt).
More importantly, phevs with an ev mode that are intended to be driven as an ev for a significant portion of their miles are devalued by battery degradation in a similar way to pure evs (because of you pay all the cash for the expensive phev systems,you don't plan to be forced to use it as a plain hybrid).
Hum, actually any car can be "exclusively powered by electricity", see start&stop systems or a mere 1st speed/reverse + starter motor...
IMO an electric vehicle is a vehicle capable of run with electrical motor's in any condition. So a modern hybrid-series ship is actually electrical because it's propulsion is electric only, parallel-hybrid vehicle are not electrical since they can't really work only on electrical motors except for limited usage.
And the fusion energi can go 85mph in ev mode, so the speed is not limited in a meaningful way. You can also lock out the gas engine to keep from accidentally starting it with a heavy foot...
Battery degradation is less a function of age and more of thermal management, depth of discharge, and number of cycles. Along with more durable battery design, these variables can be managed through better thermal management and more conservative battery use. Durability of EV batteries has improved in leaps and bounds in recent years.
Maybe it is a problem with Renault then. Go hang out in Leaf forums instead (and the Nissan Leaf doesn't even have a thermally managed battery).
I have one. I haven't lost a SINGLE capacity bar after 3 years (first year saw really heavy usage with multiple quick charges a week). Unless it decides to self-destruct after 5 years, I would expect it to last a while.
Yes, they lose maximum capacity over time. Very slowly. They still work. This is not a phone or laptop.
No, thanks, I do not ask on some vendor's forum. I prefer ask people I can trust as sources, not eventually disguised marketing guys or bot.
As I write before I say most of them are on Renault, But one is on a Tesla. This last one essentially stop using it because it's too large for him in city and it can't use it because of reduced range to go to it's country house or on mountains to ski without recharge...
The problem, beside battery life, Renault ZE have and nobody like to recall it in marketing is 85 euro/month fee for battery (mandatory) rental.
BTW battery tech is the very same of phones, laptop, cordless drill etc, any other devices that use lithium ion battery. Only very few vendors offer other option that last even less than Li-Ion battery.
What are you even talking about? My EV's battery is 90% of the size as my old Toyota's. I drive it every day. I charge it at home. I don't go to gas stations any more.
IMO anyone buying a fossil fuel car at this point is the one being duped by marketing. (excluding circumstances such as nowhere to charge).
IMO anyone buying a fossil fuel car at this point is the one being duped by marketing.
I'm guessing this is deliberate hyperbole, because it's simply not true. The OP very much has a point: aside from Tesla X, the interior space (both rear bench seating - important for families - and boot (trunk)) in current EVs is nowhere near many combustion engine cars. (We just bought a VW Touran; we really wanted an EV, but fitting baby seat and pram plus shopping or luggage is just not possible unless you spend ~€100k on a Tesla; aside from the price, the OP's point about the footprint/width of the car is a major obstacle in much of Europe.
The range question is only really resolved on the very latest models (Renault Zoe, Hyundai Kona EV, Jaguar i-Pace) and the Teslas as well. Our absolute minimum was 200km mixed driving in all seasons and that already narrows you down to a very small pool of models. Our VW Touran has a range of 800km. (500km would be more than enough for 99.9% of our trips though.)
Owner of both a gas and electric vehicle here (Ford + Tesla).
Gas is still way cheaper. Electric (specifically Tesla) is way more convenient. All EVs will soon be more convenient as fast charging options become more available for all EVs.
I bet as EVs get cheaper, so does gasoline because of dropping demand. I doubt EVs will beat gas on long-term-ownership-cost within the next 5 years.
*EDIT: Should've noted I also live in the northeastern US which is probably relevant for both price and convenience factors.
You must admit though, circumstances such as nowhere to charge and overall cost are a pretty core problem. Electric cars are great, except when they’re not.
As said above while I do not have owned an EV myself I know few peoples with one and NO one, after an initial period of high enthusiasm, would buy another in the future.
So my data, surely not significant in statistical terms tell a really different story than actual marketing claims. And since car's are build in series I bet they have still a generally valid value.
First, it's fossil fuel that has a marketing issue. First of all, you have to pretend the second hand value of your car is not going to rapidly tank as EVs take over. If you are buying Diesel, I hope you factor in that it will be a hard sell in a few years and you might have to write off a lot more than you bargained for when you sell at a much lower price than you hoped. IMHO Diesel is the canary in the coal mine here; the same will happen to petrol cars in a few years. This will rapidly kill the market for new ICE vehicles as there is no point in buying them if you can't pass them on at a reasonable price a few years later.
Secondly, fossil fuel cars benefit from all sorts of government protection including tax benefits for big oil, tax funded expensive wars in the middle east (at trillions $ cost), silly subsidies for things like bio diesel, etc. And that's before you factor in the damage burning fuel does. Which people seem to be allowed to get away with for absolutely free. If you stop all that overnight, ICE based cars would become a really hard sell because fuel prices would rise, and manufacturers would be retrofitting cars with expensive fixes to make them stop being a health and safety risk in fear of action law suits. Think tobacco industry here. Why not? Diesel/petrol, fumes kill people, by the millions with long term health affects and measurable life time decreases. There's no good reason for any of this to continue to be the case as EVs become widely available commodity products available at competitive prices. This is more than a little marketing challenge as governments world wide seem to be cracking down on this with taxes, vehicle restrictions, etc. And that's of course aside from the whole co2 business. I know, not a popular topic but it's having real effects on fuel prices and vehicle taxes in most civilized places at this point. I don't see that ending any time soon; rather the opposite.
Norway is leading here, but plenty more countries are following. This will kill demand and increase cost for ICE based vehicles. That's why GM and Ford shut down a lot of their ICE business last year and why the likes of VW are making tens of billions of investments in production capacity for EVs over the next few years. In fact, most major manufacturers are effectively divesting their ICE business for a few years now. A few percent now, doubling every 18 months or so creates a nice exponential growth curve for EVs. Meanwhile, everything else is dealing with shrinking markets, declining ASPs, increasing taxes, government pressure, etc. There's very little future in ICE based vehicles, judging from how major manufacturers are behaving in the last year.
Charging infrastructure is just fine. There's plenty of it already and more is on the way. Actually, most of it is under-utilised most of the time (<10%). So, there's plenty of room for growth short term and plenty more long term as there are continued investments in charging infrastructure happening everywhere. Sure, in the utterly unrealistic scenario that everyone would switch overnight to EVs this would indeed be a minor challenge for grid providers. But growth as per even the most optimistic scenarios, provides plenty of room for continued investments in infrastructure, clean energy, etc. You say problem, I say business opportunity. Most healthy businesses would consider predicted growth spread over multiple years/decades to be fantastic news. Of course it kind of sucks if all you know is burning coal/gas and all the cool new hip kids are undercutting your prices with solar/wind.
Battery life is not really a problem for the vast majority of commuters. Even with the unimpressive/limited range of already obsolete first generation vehicles like the Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt. Long distance travel indeed requires annoyingly long charging breaks; but on the other hand taking a break after 200-300 miles is not the end of the world. And if you drive those kind of distances daily, your life sucks much more than that of most drivers stuck in perpetual traffic jams. Luckily, faster charging high end vehicles with longer ranges are becoming available as well. And that's before you factor in battery R&D over the next few decades that will decimate cost and double/triple capacities.
But most people rarely need to rely on public charging points since their car will be fully charged when they unplug it at home in the morning. And coming back to the charging infrastructure, most people see a measurable but not spectacular increase in their electricity use while charging almost exclusively at home. You have to drive a lot to double your usage. So if that's the same for most people, we're talking probably much less than 2 x increase in total electricity demand. And that's spread out over the next 10-20 years. Also, charging happens mostly off peak at night. And you can do some interesting things such as use charged cars to provide power back to the grid during peak hours. In short, this is not an issue now and unlikely to become one.
Finally, battery life span seems awesome in first generation vehicles. Mostly their batteries get reused rather than recycled after their vehicles are written off. Tesla guarantees 100K+ miles for their drivetrains + batteries at or above 70% capacity: reason: they know full well, they can do at least double that. I think Elon Musk was actually boasting numbers closer to 500K miles recently. Most ICE cars would go to many expensive maintenance cycles every few tens of thousands of miles.
First of all thanks for the long reply, while I disagree you have take times and energy to answer and today that's rare and valuable.
On my counter-point, in order:
On residual value, while I know it's not common norm I do not buy vehicles to re-sell them after few years. I tend to prefer keep them longer (around 8/10 years) and use them at December to get more discount from the vendor. I do a bit of math and found this as a good ration between having a vehicle with proper maintenance that do not give me much surprise during it's life and do not spend too much in continuous buy&sell game.
On fossil fuels, yes, they benefit from many kind of subside, however not for us "end-users" but only to the industry and resulting price does not came in relation of subsides but, at least in EU, came as a bank for our governments to milk money without introduce more explicit taxes.
So came the decision to ditch diesel that IMO pollute far less than gasoline in newest Euro6+ versions and offer few extra benefit like:
- less maintenance cost;
- less fuel per unit distance;
- safer in case of accidents (diesel does not explode and it's very hard to burn from heated metals/sparks);
- easy to stock in big quantity without explosion risk (nearly no gas production) and without loosing efficiency after years of stock.
Those IMO are the real reason behind actual marketing against diesel. Since we know that we do not have gasoline trucks, nor in general gasoline heavy vehicles nor we use anything else to start newer ship motors. So we know that we do not really ditch diesel before we have something like small nuclear reactors safer and cheap and scalable enough to be on any heavy vehicle. And those vehicle actually pollute far more than private car's.
On charging infrastructure I laugh: try to compute how much energy demand a single classic car, sum that for the total number of car of your nation and try to compute how many GWh/day your nation need to charge an hypothetical all-EV car's nationwide fleet. Perhaps only Norway, Sweden and Swiss with their nuclear+hydroelectric power and very low population can afford that demand. Without counting the fact that we can't distribute such energy without burn our actual transmission infrastructure.
Battery life IMO it's a problem, not only for the car owner but also at a scale since we do not know how to dismantle used batteries and keep pushing them to poor countries does not really scale, nor is morally acceptable.
BTW in most cities people do not have a garage so they can't recharge their vehicle at home. That's a classic marketing picture of an individual house of happy people with a garden and a private garage. That's exists for few countries and for little areas of them. Not for the vast majority of developed world.
Also on distance travels they are surely not a majority but many people do work traveling on car's for long distance, and some of them are ruffly high in "social rank" of our timocratic society...
In the end, no, I'm not convinced at all and I add few point in the mix: I can easily store diesel easily for even few months of complete autonomy (because I've moved from the city to the mountain so I have adequate space). I can do the same for gasoline but at a far bigger risk (explosion/fire and time degradation). I can't do for electricity. Of course you may say that without electricity I can't do many other things and that's right but only partially: I can't be in comfort but I still can live, far better than cave-man survival. My garage big bi-energy freezer can work on propane/butane for around 4 months without gas bottles supply. I can cook on wood stove despite it's uncomfortable. I can heat water with the very same stove + thermic-solar panels that also heat my house via a VMC, I do not have one now but I'm planning to add a photovoltaic panel that's enough for thermic-solar water circulation + VMC. So I can stand, without comfort but far better than being in a camping tent. And my diesel car can move.
Another point to the mix: EVs tend to be connected/require regular connection to the vendor for many things, internal combustion vehicle are more and more connected but I can still buy and use unconnected one's.
Long story short I'm looking for, I hoping for a greener future, but I foresee a black future instead, not only because of climate change but because of actual social trends. And EV are a part of that black picture, not a dream of a better future...
I will just answer one of your points, because this is something I looked at recently:
>On charging infrastructure I laugh: try to compute how much energy demand a single classic car, sum that for the total number of car of your nation and try to compute how many GWh/day your nation need to charge an hypothetical all-EV car's nationwide fleet. Perhaps only Norway, Sweden and Swiss with their nuclear+hydroelectric power and very low population can afford that demand. Without counting the fact that we can't distribute such energy without burn our actual transmission infrastructure.
You should do at least some rough maths before making such comments, it is not hard.
In my country - Australia:
- Electricity consumption per capita is about 11,000 kWhr/year
- There are about 0.7 cars/capita
- Annual km driven per car is about 15,000.
Electric cars get roughly 5 km range per kWhr, therefore if ALL cars in Australia became electric, the electricity consumption would increase by (15000/5)*0.7 = 2100 kWhr per year. Less than 20%.
If most of charging occurred at home at night, there would be no need to upgrade the grid, or power generation capacity, as the night-time utilisation is under 50%.
Furthermore, the batteries in the cars could, with just a little thought and effort, act as a grid reserve, feeding power into the grid during peak demand, and, in some countries, absorbing non dispatch-able power generation such as wind and solar.
Try to compute differently: how much usable energy you milk from gasoline/diesel? How many fill-up you do per week on your car? Now compute it at national scale and imaging it in electrical energy instead of chemical.
That's the "most real" consumption you can compute... Another easier and raw/spannometric computation can be counting a 70/80% recharge per day per car.
Results are far bigger than yours :-)
And I forgot to mention that Australia is one of the few developed country with a very little mean density and population so you have many possible energy sources and few people who consume them...
Many Norwegians are still waiting for a "real" electric car to become available. Where a real car is defined by:
- Tesla range
- 450 liter+ luggage room
- Roof rack/box
- Tow bar
In particular with Tesla you get EITHER the tow bar (model X) OR the roof box (Model S). So even IF you splurge on a luxury priced car, it feels like compromising vs getting a gasoline car.
(Also Tesla is "very large", it does not fit comfortably in parking spaces; 180 cm wide cars are really a lot more convenient than 200 cm around here).
The moment anyone is ready to just deliver something like an electric Volkswagen Passat station wagon they will sell as many as they want in Norway. But, every single announcement fails to meet these criteria. It is a standard that lots and lots of gasoline cars fullfill, but currently no EVs. (Audi e-Tron is first, but still has a too large footprint, and also too expensive for most).